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Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

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  • Fan Zhai

    ()

  • Juzhong Zhuang

Abstract

Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate.However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultural production and trade, ultimately leaving the developing world as a net loser. With the anticipated declining agricultural share in the economy, a reduction in agricultural productivity would have small, but non-negligible negative impacts on Southeast Asia’s economic output. However, the expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deteriorated terms of trade. Depending on a country’s economic structure, the negative effects are expected to be less for Singapore and Malaysia, but greater for Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For Southeast Asia to cope with the potential agricultural damages arising from the expected changes in climate the region must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity.[ADBI WP NO 131]

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1944, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1944
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    2. Anderson, Jock R. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1994. "Sustaining growth in agriculture: A quantitative review of agricultural research investments," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 107-123, April.
    3. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, April.
    4. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. David Zilberman & Xuemei Liu & David Roland-Holst & David Sunding, 2004. "The economics of climate change in agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-382, October.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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