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Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

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  • Fan Zhai
  • Juzhong Zhuang

Abstract

Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate.However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultural production and trade, ultimately leaving the developing world as a net loser. With the anticipated declining agricultural share in the economy, a reduction in agricultural productivity would have small, but non-negligible negative impacts on Southeast Asia’s economic output. However, the expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deteriorated terms of trade. Depending on a country’s economic structure, the negative effects are expected to be less for Singapore and Malaysia, but greater for Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For Southeast Asia to cope with the potential agricultural damages arising from the expected changes in climate the region must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity.[ADBI WP NO 131]

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  • Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1944, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1944
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    2. Nguyen, Thanh Tung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Nguyen, Duy Linh & Do, Manh Hung & Grote, Ulrike, 2021. "Shocks, Agricultural Productivity, and Natural Resource Extraction in Rural Southeast Asia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314955, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Nani Maiya Sujakhu & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Rabin Raj Niraula & Muhammad Asad Salim & Arjumand Nizami & Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt & Jianchu Xu, 2018. "Determinants of livelihood vulnerability in farming communities in two sites in the Asian Highlands," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 165-182, February.
    4. Schenker, Oliver & Stephan, Gunter, 2011. "Buying Greenhouse Gas Insurance: International Trade and the Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Papers 219, World Trade Institute.
    5. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Ajay Kumar, 2014. "Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in India: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 111-122.
    7. Qi Cui & Tariq Ali & Wei Xie & Jikun Huang & Jinxia Wang, 2022. "The uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy based on an integrated assessment approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation: The case of Vietnam," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    10. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    11. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Manh Hai, Nguyen, 2012. "Examine the Agriculture, Poverty, and Climate Change Nexus in Vietnam," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Yamaura, Koichi & Sakaue, Shin & Washida, Toyoaki, 2017. "Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming and Agricultural Production: A Case of CGE Analyses," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 19.
    13. Pradhan, Basanta K. & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2019. "Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-69.

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