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Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

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  • Fan Zhai

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  • Juzhong Zhuang

Abstract

Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate.However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultural production and trade, ultimately leaving the developing world as a net loser. With the anticipated declining agricultural share in the economy, a reduction in agricultural productivity would have small, but non-negligible negative impacts on Southeast Asia’s economic output. However, the expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deteriorated terms of trade. Depending on a country’s economic structure, the negative effects are expected to be less for Singapore and Malaysia, but greater for Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For Southeast Asia to cope with the potential agricultural damages arising from the expected changes in climate the region must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity.[ADBI WP NO 131]

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1944, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economic Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    3. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, December.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    5. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth & Nin, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," Working papers 283453, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. David Zilberman & Xuemei Liu & David Roland-Holst & David Sunding, 2004. "The economics of climate change in agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-382, October.
    7. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nani Maiya Sujakhu & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Rabin Raj Niraula & Muhammad Asad Salim & Arjumand Nizami & Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt & Jianchu Xu, 2018. "Determinants of livelihood vulnerability in farming communities in two sites in the Asian Highlands," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 165-182, February.
    2. Saeed Solaymani, 2018. "Impacts of climate change on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1575-1596, August.
    3. Ajay Kumar, 2014. "Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in India: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 111-122.
    4. Pradhan, Basanta K. & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2019. "Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-69.

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