Examine the Agriculture, Poverty, and Climate Change Nexus in Vietnam

Vietnam is likely to be among the hardest hit countries by climate change, which may threaten the recent progress it has made in accelerating agricultural growth and poverty reduction. To examine how agriculture and the rural poor may be affected by a changing climate, this paper measures Vietnamese farmers’ adaptation behavior in terms of adjustments to the production portfolio and input usage. Specifically, the paper estimates a rice yield function based on household-level crop production, long-term climate measurements and recent weather shocks. The results suggest that rice production will suffer from climate change. However, Vietnamese farmers are likely to respond to changes in rainfall and temperature by adjusting input usage. While this will help maintaining productivity levels, expanding irrigation and agricultural intensification will be key components of climate change adaptation strategies at farm and national level. Localized policy packages aiming at increasing yield by focusing on vulnerable groups (ethnic-minority and/or the poor) can help achieve multiple development goals of poverty reduction, food security and climate change adaptation.