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A Global Model Of Climate Change Impacts On Timber Markets


  • Sohngen, Brent
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Sedjo, Roger A.


Several papers have now estimated the impact of climate change on national timber markets, but few studies have measured impacts globally. Further, the literature on impacts has focused heavily on changes in productivity and has not integrated movements of biomes as well. Here, a dynamic model of ecological change and economic change is developed to capture the impact of climate change on world timber markets. Climate change is predicted to increase global timber production as producers in low-mid latitude forests react quickly with more productive short-rotation plantations, driving down timber prices. Producers in mid-high latitude forests, in contrast, are likely to be hurt by the lower prices, dieback, and slower productivity increases because of long-rotation species. Consumers in all regions benefit from the lower prices, and the overall impacts of climate change in timber markets are expected to be beneficial, increasing welfare in those markets from 2% to 8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sedjo, Roger A., 2001. "A Global Model Of Climate Change Impacts On Timber Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31044

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1996. "Land use and cover in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-181, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    2. Sedjo, Roger A., 2010. "Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change: Some Estimates," Discussion Papers dp-10-06, Resources For the Future.
    3. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
    4. Kopp, Robert E. & Golub, Alexander & Keohane, Nathaniel O. & Onda, Chikara, 2012. "The influence of the specification of climate change damages on the social cost of carbon," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-40.
    5. Guido Franco & Daniel Cayan & Susanne Moser & Michael Hanemann & Myoung-Ae Jones, 2011. "Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
    7. Guo, Christopher & Costello, Christopher, 2013. "The value of adaption: Climate change and timberland management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 452-468.
    8. -, 2010. "Millennium development goals: advances in environmentally sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2937 edited by Eclac, May.
    9. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Baylis, Katherine R. & Lipper, Leslie, 2012. "Land Degradation’s Implications on Agricultural Value of Production in Ethiopia: A look inside the bowl," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126251, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Latta, G.S & Sjølie, H.K. & Solberg, B., 23. "Incorporating Climate Change Impacts in Forest Market Models," Scandinavian Forest Economics: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, issue 44, May.
    11. Manuel Guariguata & Jonathan Cornelius & Bruno Locatelli & Claudio Forner & G. Sánchez-Azofeifa, 2008. "Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 793-808, October.
    12. L. Hannah & C. Costello & C. Guo & L. Ries & C. Kolstad & D. Panitz & N. Snider, 2011. "The impact of climate change on California timberlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 429-443, December.
    13. S. Niggol Seo, 2016. "The Micro-behavioral Framework for Estimating Total Damage of Global Warming on Natural Resource Enterprises with Full Adaptations," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 328-347, June.
    14. P. Link & Richard Tol, 2011. "Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 287-304, January.
    15. Susaeta, Andres & Adams, Damian C. & Carter, Douglas R. & Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos & Dwivedi, Puneet, 2016. "Technical, allocative, and total profit efficiency of loblolly pine forests under changing climatic conditions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 106-114.
    16. -, 2009. "Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 3165 edited by Eclac, May.
    17. Ochuodho, T.O. & Lantz, V.A. & Lloyd-Smith, P. & Benitez, P., 2012. "Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests: A CGE modeling analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 100-112.
    18. Mur, Ruben Javier & Goetz, Renan-Ulrich & Xabadia, Angels & Córdoba, Francesc & Gracia, Carles, 2014. "Adapting the optimal selective-logging of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in NE Spain to increasing CO2 concentrations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 286-304.
    19. Rose, Steven K., 2014. "Integrated assessment modeling of climate change adaptation in forestry and pasture land use: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 548-554.
    20. Sohngen, Brent & Tian, Xiaohui, 2016. "Global climate change impacts on forests and markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 18-26.

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