IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v34y2020i12d10.1007_s11269-020-02648-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities

Author

Listed:
  • Aida Mehrazar

    (University of Tehran)

  • Ali Reza Massah Bavani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Alireza Gohari

    (Isfahan University of Technology (IUT))

  • Mahmoud Mashal

    (University of Tehran)

  • Hadisseh Rahimikhoob

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

The projection of climate change impacts can be very crucial for water resources planning and management. Hashtgerd plain is an immigrant destination due to socio-economic development and its proximity to the Tehran metropolis. The population growth has led to more water demand, resulting in excessive utilization of groundwater resources and water shortages in the agricultural sector. The water shortage and climate change in Hashtgerd plain could lead to more severe water crisis in the future. Therefore, this study aimed to provide adaptation strategies for minimizing the negative effects of climate change by taking into account the interaction between different sub-systems in Hashtgerd plain during 2020–2049 period. In order to assess the climate change impacts, the output of 19 AOGCMs models was used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A comprehensive model was developed based on the system dynamics theory to investigate the interactions of water resources, agriculture, and socio-economic sub-systems and were used to investigate the impacts of climate change and evaluate various adaptation strategies on different sub-systems of the region. The simulation results showed the negative effects of climate change will intensify the water shortage in Hashtgerd Plain. The agricultural sector will be more vulnerable to climate change than the domestic and industrial sectors. The results of various policies showed that improving water use efficiency coupled with reducing the cultivation of high-consumption crops and changing the cropping pattern towards lower water requirement plants can effectively minimize the adverse impacts of climate change on water shortages in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Aida Mehrazar & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Alireza Gohari & Mahmoud Mashal & Hadisseh Rahimikhoob, 2020. "Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3855-3877, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02648-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02648-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02648-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-020-02648-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "Erratum to: System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4367-4368, October.
    2. Khalidullin O H, 2018. "Water Circulation and Climate Change," JOJ Wildlife & Biodiversity, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 1(1), pages 1-3, November.
    3. Kondwani Msowoya & Kaveh Madani & Rahman Davtalab & Ali Mirchi & Jay R. Lund, 2016. "Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5299-5312, November.
    4. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    5. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    6. Paucar-Caceres, A. & Bandala, E.R. & Wright, G.H., 2017. "The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 567-581.
    7. Zhihe Chen & Shuai Wei, 2014. "Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 287-300, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shuping & Tan, Qian & Zhang, Tianyuan & Zhang, Tong, 2022. "Water management policy analysis: Insight from a calibration-based inexact programming method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. Giada Felisa & Giulio Panini & Pietro Pedrazzoli & Vittorio Di Federico, 2022. "Combined Management of Groundwater Resources and Water Supply Systems at Basin Scale Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 915-930, February.
    3. Clara Estrela-Segrelles & Gabriel Gómez-Martínez & Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín, 2023. "Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2757-2770, May.
    4. Mahsa Mirdashtvan & Ali Najafinejad & Arash Malekian & Amir Sa’doddin, 2021. "Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5307-5324, December.
    5. Saleem S. AlSaleem & Ebrahim Al-Qadami & Hussein Zein Korany & Md. Shafiquzzaman & Husnain Haider & Amimul Ahsan & Mohammad Alresheedi & Abdullah AlGhafis & Abdulaziz AlHarbi, 2022. "Computational Fluid Dynamic Applications for Solar Stills Efficiency Assessment: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-32, August.
    6. Vanita Jain & Aarushi Dhingra & Eeshita Gupta & Ish Takkar & Rachna Jain & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2023. "Influence of Land Surface Temperature and Rainfall on Surface Water Change: An Innovative Machine Learning Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 3013-3035, June.
    7. Khawar Naeem & Adel Zghibi & Adel Elomri & Annamaria Mazzoni & Chefi Triki, 2023. "A Literature Review on System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Management of Water Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, April.
    8. Lanie A. Alejo & Arlen S. Alejandro, 2022. "Changes in Irrigation Planning and Development Parameters Due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1711-1726, March.
    9. Abbas Mirzaei & Mansour Zibaei, 2021. "Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    11. Gohari, Alireza & Savari, Peyman & Eslamian, Saeid & Etemadi, Nematollah & Keilmann-Gondhalekar, Daphne, 2022. "Developing a system dynamic plus framework for water-land-society nexus modeling within urban socio-hydrologic systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    12. Hossein Mikhak & Mehdi Rahimian & Saeed Gholamrezai, 2022. "Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9833-9850, August.
    13. Ritsche A. Kloosterman & Jan Peter Hoek & Paulien Herder, 2021. "Resilient Drinking Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 337-351, January.
    14. Zobeidi, Tahereh & Yaghoubi, Jafar & Yazdanpanah, Masoud, 2022. "Farmers’ incremental adaptation to water scarcity: An application of the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianjin Dong & Xu Zhang & Yalin Chen & Debin Fang, 2019. "Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2093-2108, April.
    2. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Parvin Golfam & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2022. "Performance Indexes Analysis of the Reservoir-Hydropower Plant System Affected by Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5127-5162, October.
    4. Rasoul Maleki & Mehdi Nooripoor & Zeinab Sharifi & Dacinia Crina Petrescu, 2023. "Application of community‐based system dynamics for the management of rural households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 573-585, May.
    5. Wen-jing Niu & Zhong-kai Feng & Shuai Liu & Yu-bin Chen & Yin-shan Xu & Jun Zhang, 2021. "Multiple Hydropower Reservoirs Operation by Hyperbolic Grey Wolf Optimizer Based on Elitism Selection and Adaptive Mutation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 573-591, January.
    6. Gohari, Alireza & Savari, Peyman & Eslamian, Saeid & Etemadi, Nematollah & Keilmann-Gondhalekar, Daphne, 2022. "Developing a system dynamic plus framework for water-land-society nexus modeling within urban socio-hydrologic systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Vahid Karimi & Ezatollah Karami & Shobeir Karami & Marzieh Keshavarz, 2021. "Adaptation to climate change through agricultural paradigm shift," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5465-5485, April.
    8. Mehri Abdi-Dehkordi & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Abdolrahim Salavitabar & Sahar Mohammad-Azari & Erfan Goharian, 2021. "Development of flood mitigation strategies toward sustainable development," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2543-2567, September.
    9. Cervantes-Gaxiola, Maritza E. & Sosa-Niebla, Erik F. & Hernández-Calderón, Oscar M. & Ponce-Ortega, José M. & Ortiz-del-Castillo, Jesús R. & Rubio-Castro, Eusiel, 2020. "Optimal crop allocation including market trends and water availability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 728-739.
    10. Karen S. Meijer & Femke Schasfoort & Maike Bennema, 2021. "Quantitative Modeling of Human Responses to Changes in Water Resources Availability: A Review of Methods and Theories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. José-Luis Molina & Santiago Zazo & Ana-María Martín-Casado & María-Carmen Patino-Alonso, 2020. "Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.
    13. P. Biglarbeigi & W. A. Strong & D. Finlay & R. McDermott & P. Griffiths, 2020. "A Hybrid Model-Based Adaptive Framework for the Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4053-4066, October.
    14. Bukhary, Saria & Ahmad, Sajjad & Batista, Jacimaria, 2018. "Analyzing land and water requirements for solar deployment in the Southwestern United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3288-3305.
    15. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha & Ricardo Luís, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Water Reservoir Systems Performance with the Implementation of Ecological Flows under Varying Climatic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 5183-5205, December.
    16. Layani, Ghasem & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad & Zibaei, Mansour & Viaggi, Davide, 2021. "Sustainable water resources management under population growth and agricultural development in the Kheirabad river basin, Iran," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 10(4), December.
    17. Farhad Yazdandoost & Sogol Moradian & Ardalan Izadi, 2020. "Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4831-4846, December.
    18. Mahsa Mirdashtvan & Ali Najafinejad & Arash Malekian & Amir Sa’doddin, 2021. "Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5307-5324, December.
    19. Khawar Naeem & Adel Zghibi & Adel Elomri & Annamaria Mazzoni & Chefi Triki, 2023. "A Literature Review on System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Management of Water Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, April.
    20. George Halkos & Antonis Skouloudis & Chrisovalantis Malesios & Nikoleta Jones, 2020. "A Hierarchical Multilevel Approach in Assessing Factors Explaining Country-Level Climate Change Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-14, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02648-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.