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Developing a system dynamic plus framework for water-land-society nexus modeling within urban socio-hydrologic systems

Author

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  • Gohari, Alireza
  • Savari, Peyman
  • Eslamian, Saeid
  • Etemadi, Nematollah
  • Keilmann-Gondhalekar, Daphne

Abstract

System dynamics models facilitate the sustainable management of urban socio-hydrologic systems by capturing the synergies between water, land, and urban society However, SD models depend heavily upon both quantitative and qualitative data to characterize the feedback loops in complex systems. This study aims to improve the capability of SD in problem conceptualization and scenario analysis within socio-hydrologic systems. Applying the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) and system archetypes coupled with SD models facilitate capturing interactions among disparate but interconnected subsystems driving the system's dynamic behavior. To explore this methodology, the SD+ has been applied to develop a Water-Land-Society Nexus model within the Isfahan City located in arid and semi-arid Central Iran. The results demonstrated that the continuation of the existing management policies will cause a severe water shortage due to increase in urban land uses as well as growing water demand. The Isfahan's water shortage has the characteristics of the Shifting the Burden system archetype, in which symptomatic solutions alleviate the problem symptom in the short-term, causing significant side effects in the long-run. Supplying more water through water transfer and wastewater reuse decreases water shortage, leading to increasing the water demand as well as the limited access to water.

Suggested Citation

  • Gohari, Alireza & Savari, Peyman & Eslamian, Saeid & Etemadi, Nematollah & Keilmann-Gondhalekar, Daphne, 2022. "Developing a system dynamic plus framework for water-land-society nexus modeling within urban socio-hydrologic systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:185:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522006138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122092
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