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Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling

Author

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  • Huanhuan Qin

    (East China Institute of Technology)

  • Chunmiao Zheng

    (Southern University of Science and Technology)

  • Xin He

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
    Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Jens Christian Refsgaard

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

Abstract

The North China Plain (NCP) has been affected by severe water scarcity over the past several decades. To address this issue, several water management plans have already been launched. Among them, the new South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) draws the most attention. However, the effectiveness of the SNWDP is yet to be evaluated. In the present study, we developed a coupled hydrological and system dynamics (SD) model to analyze water management scenarios for the NCP: S1: business as usual, S2: less agricultural water, S3: more domestic and industrial water reuse, S4: SNWDP, and S5: combined efforts. The impact of climate change has been accounted for in all scenarios. The SD model was based on VENSIM, and the hydrological model was based on the MIKE SHE code. The results indicated that the groundwater development in the NCP will not be sustainable without exploiting the full potential of the SNWDP resource. However, the SNWDP alone can only lessen the water crisis, it is not able to stop the groundwater storage from further declining. Solving the water scarcity problem in the NCP will require a combination of highly reduced water use and a continued water supply from the SNWDP. Our results also indicated that innovative water saving technologies are urgently needed in the restructuring of the industrial sector. Furthermore, the study illustrated an added challenge to water management since the uncertainty range on climate change impacts are shown to be of the same magnitude as the impacts of combined management measures. Therefore, it requires great caution when making the future water management strategies in the NCP.

Suggested Citation

  • Huanhuan Qin & Chunmiao Zheng & Xin He & Jens Christian Refsgaard, 2019. "Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4849-4863, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02410-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02410-9
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    1. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhe Cheng & Yuntong Zhao & Tao Song & Le Cheng & Wenbin Wang, 2023. "White Elephant or Golden Goose? An Assessment of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from the Perspective of Regional Water Use Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 819-834, January.
    2. Zhihui Deng & Qingshan Ma & Jia Zhang & Qingda Feng & Zhaoxuan Niu & Guilin Zhu & Xianpeng Jin & Meijing Chen & Honghan Chen, 2023. "A New Socio-Hydrology System Based on System Dynamics and a SWAT-MODFLOW Coupling Model for Solving Water Resource Management in Nanchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Yutong Tian & Chunhui Li & Yujun Yi & Xuan Wang & Anping Shu, 2020. "Dynamic Model of a Sustainable Water Resources Utilization System with Coupled Water Quality and Quantity in Tianjin City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.

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