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Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling

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  • Elmira Hassanzadeh
  • Mahdi Zarghami

    ()

  • Yousef Hassanzadeh

Abstract

Urmia Lake in Iran is the second largest saline lake in the world. This ecosystem is the home for different species. Due to various socio-economical and ecological criteria, Urmia Lake has important role in the Northwestern part of the country but it has faced many problems in recent years. Because of droughts, overuse of surface water resources and dam constructions, water level has decreased in such a way that one quarter of the lake has changed to saline area in the last 10 years. The purpose of this research is to determine the main factors which reduce the lake’s water level. To this end, a simulation model, based on system dynamics method, is developed for the Urmia Lake basin to estimate the lake’s level. After successful verification of the model, results show that (among the proposed factors) changes in inflows due to the climate change and overuse of surface water resources is the main factor for 65% of the effect, constructing four dams is responsible for 25% of the problem, and less precipitation on lake has 10% effect on decreasing the lake’s level in the recent years. In the future, the model also can be used by managers as a decision support system to find the effects of building new dams or other infrastructures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:1:p:129-145
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9909-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maryam Ghashghaei & Ali Bagheri & Saeed Morid, 2013. "Rainfall-runoff Modeling in a Watershed Scale Using an Object Oriented Approach Based on the Concepts of System Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5119-5141, December.
    2. Babak Vaheddoost & Hafzullah Aksoy & Hirad Abghari, 2016. "Prediction of Water Level using Monthly Lagged Data in Lake Urmia, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4951-4967, October.
    3. Yusuf Alizade Govarchin Ghale & Abdusselam Altunkaynak & Alper Unal, 2018. "Investigation Anthropogenic Impacts and Climate Factors on Drying up of Urmia Lake using Water Budget and Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 325-337, January.
    4. Hadi Tarebari & Amir Hossein Javid & Seyyed Ahmad Mirbagheri & Hedayat Fahmi, 2018. "Multi-Objective Surface Water Resource Management Considering Conflict Resolution and Utility Function Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4487-4509, November.
    5. Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    6. Nazak Rouzegari & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Mohammad Taghi Sattari, 2019. "Using the Hybrid Simulated Annealing-M5 Tree Algorithms to Extract the If-Then Operation Rules in a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3655-3672, August.
    7. Neamat Karimi & Mohammad Hossein Bagheri & Farhad Hooshyaripor & Ashkan Farokhnia & Sara Sheshangosht, 2016. "Deriving and Evaluating Bathymetry Maps and Stage Curves for Shallow Lakes Using Remote Sensing Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5003-5020, November.
    8. Alizade Govarchin Ghale, Yusuf & Baykara, Metin & Unal, Alper, 2019. "Investigating the interaction between agricultural lands and Urmia Lake ecosystem using remote sensing techniques and hydro-climatic data analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 566-579.
    9. Taheri, Mercedeh & Emadzadeh, Maryam & Gholizadeh, Mohsen & Tajrishi, Masoud & Ahmadi, Mehdi & Moradi, Melika, 2019. "Investigating the temporal and spatial variations of water consumption in Urmia Lake River Basin considering the climate and anthropogenic effects on the agriculture in the basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 782-791.
    10. Hossein Kakahaji & Hamed Banadaki & Abbas Kakahaji & Abdulamir Kakahaji, 2013. "Prediction of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations by Using Analytical, Linear Statistic and Intelligent Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4469-4492, October.
    11. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    12. Rezaei Zaman, Mostafa & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid, 2016. "Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 98-110.
    13. Dehghanipour, Amir Hossein & Zahabiyoun, Bagher & Schoups, Gerrit & Babazadeh, Hossein, 2019. "A WEAP-MODFLOW surface water-groundwater model for the irrigated Miyandoab plain, Urmia lake basin, Iran: Multi-objective calibration and quantification of historical drought impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Kaveh Madani, 2014. "Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 315-328, December.
    15. Sanaz Moghim, 2020. "Assessment of Water Storage Changes Using GRACE and GLDAS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 685-697, January.
    16. Tasumi, Masahiro, 2019. "Estimating evapotranspiration using METRIC model and Landsat data for better understandings of regional hydrology in the western Urmia Lake Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Ali Torabi Haghighi & Nasim Fazel & Ali Akbar Hekmatzadeh & Björn Klöve, 2018. "Analysis of Effective Environmental Flow Release Strategies for Lake Urmia Restoration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(11), pages 3595-3609, September.
    18. Samaneh Ashraf & Amir AghaKouchak & Ali Nazemi & Ali Mirchi & Mojtaba Sadegh & Hamed R. Moftakhari & Elmira Hassanzadeh & Chi-Yuan Miao & Kaveh Madani & Mohammad Mousavi Baygi & Hassan Anjileli & Davo, 2019. "Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 379-391, March.
    19. José-Luis Molina & Santiago Zazo & Ana-María Martín-Casado & María-Carmen Patino-Alonso, 2020. "Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.

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