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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

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  • Guangyang Wu
  • Lanhai Li
  • Sajjad Ahmad
  • Xi Chen
  • Xiangliang Pan

Abstract

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:8:p:3085-3101
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z
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    12. Neeraj Vedwan & Sajjad Ahmad & Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm & Kenneth Broad & David Letson & Guillermo Podesta, 2008. "Institutional Evolution in Lake Okeechobee Management in Florida: Characteristics, Impacts, and Limitations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(6), pages 699-718, June.
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    7. Dongguo Shao & Xudong Li & Wenquan Gu, 2015. "A Method for Temporary Water Scarcity Analysis in Humid Region Under Droughts Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3823-3839, August.
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    11. Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
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    15. Jun Xia & Like Ning & Quan Wang & Junxu Chen & Long Wan & Si Hong, 2017. "Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 549-563, October.

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