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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

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  • Guangyang Wu
  • Lanhai Li
  • Sajjad Ahmad
  • Xi Chen
  • Xiangliang Pan

Abstract

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:8:p:3085-3101
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z
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    7. Dongguo Shao & Xudong Li & Wenquan Gu, 2015. "A Method for Temporary Water Scarcity Analysis in Humid Region Under Droughts Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3823-3839, August.
    8. Laishram Kanta Singh & Madan K. Jha & V. M. Chowdary, 2021. "Evaluation of water demand and supply under varying meteorological conditions in Eastern India and mitigation strategies for sustainable agricultural production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1264-1291, February.
    9. Zhai, Yijie & Bai, Yueyang & Wu, Zhen & Hong, Jinglan & Shen, Xiaoxu & Xie, Fei & Li, Xiangzhi, 2022. "Grain self-sufficiency versus environmental stress: An integration of system dynamics and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Kazi Ali Tamaddun & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation in the Continental US Streamflow in Association with Large-Scale Climate Signals Across Multiple Spectral Bands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1947-1968, April.
    11. Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
    12. Alisson Lopes Rodrigues & Lineu Neiva Rodrigues & Guilherme Fernandes Marques & Pedro Manuel Villa, 2023. "Simulation Model to Assess the Water Dynamics in Small Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2019-2038, March.
    13. Khawar Naeem & Adel Zghibi & Adel Elomri & Annamaria Mazzoni & Chefi Triki, 2023. "A Literature Review on System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Management of Water Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, April.
    14. Ali, Muhammad Fadzli & Sulong, Siti Hawa & Julius, Kotir & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2022. "Using a participatory system dynamics modelling approach to inform the management of Malaysian rubber production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Jun Xia & Like Ning & Quan Wang & Junxu Chen & Long Wan & Si Hong, 2017. "Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 549-563, October.

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