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Modeling of water management for cotton production in Uzbekistan

Author

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  • Abduraupov, Rustam
  • Akhmadjanova, Gulmira
  • Ibragimov, Abdulla
  • Bala, B.K.
  • Sidique, Shaufique F.
  • Makhmudov, Miraziz
  • Angelina, Kim

Abstract

Cotton is the main crop in Uzbekistan. The use of water for irrigation of cotton has a number of environmental consequences, most notably the decreasing of the Aral Sea, and triggering water salinity increase. Modeling of water management for cotton production in the cotton agro-eco zones of Uzbekistan is a challenge constrained by the availability and salinity of water. This research presents a system dynamics model of water management for cotton production in Uzbekistan. Causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram are hypothesized to generate the observed behavior of cotton production system. The model was programmed using the software STELLA and was solved using Runge–Kutta forth order method. Simulated results agree well with the observed data of cotton area and total cotton production quantitatively. Sensitivity analysis of the model have also been addressed. Also the model has been simulated to address the policy issue of investment on drip irrigation, cotton price liberalization, improvement in crop productivity and a mix policy which is combination of these three policies. Finally, the model provides better understanding and greater insights for water management of cotton production for better management of cotton production and can be used as a computer laboratory for scenario building and policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Abduraupov, Rustam & Akhmadjanova, Gulmira & Ibragimov, Abdulla & Bala, B.K. & Sidique, Shaufique F. & Makhmudov, Miraziz & Angelina, Kim, 2022. "Modeling of water management for cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:265:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422000828
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107535
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
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    3. Inna Rudenko & John P A Lamers & Ulrike Grote, 2009. "Can Uzbek Farmers get More for their Cotton?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(2), pages 283-296, April.
    4. Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani & David Watkins & Sajjad Ahmad, 2012. "Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2421-2442, July.
    5. Spoor, M.N., 1993. "Transition to market economies in former Soviet Central Asia : dependency, cotton and water," ISS Working Papers - General Series 18862, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
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    1. Olimjon Saidmamatov & Orifjon Saidmamatov & Yuldoshboy Sobirov & Peter Marty & Davron Ruzmetov & Temur Berdiyorov & Javlon Karimov & Ergash Ibadullaev & Umidjon Matyakubov & Jonathon Day, 2024. "Nexus between Life Expectancy, CO 2 Emissions, Economic Development, Water, and Agriculture in Aral Sea Basin: Empirical Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, March.

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