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Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China

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  • Chen, Shuai
  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Xu, Jintao

Abstract

Using a unique county-level panel on single-season rice yield and daily weather outcomes from 1996 to 2009, we examined the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China. We have five key findings: (i) in contrast to nearly all previous studies focusing on rice production in tropical/subtropical regions, we discovered that higher daily minimum temperature during the vegetative stage increased rice yield; (ii) consistent with previous assessments, we found that increased daily maximum temperature during the vegetative and ripening stages reduced rice yield; (iii) the impacts of solar radiation and rainfall on rice yield differed across the plant’s growth stages; (iv) estimated weather effects on yield differed by rice variety; and (v) weather variations caused a net economic loss of $21.6-88.2 million during the sample period, depending on model specifications and econometric estimation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211462, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211462
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211462
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    1. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    2. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    4. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    5. Braulke, Michael, 1982. "A Note on the Nerlove Model of Agricultural Supply Response," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(1), pages 241-244, February.
    6. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    7. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jesus Eduardo Robles Chavez, 2022. "Allocation of drought relief resources and its biased impact on agricultural production in Mexico," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 3(6), pages 40-80.
    3. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    4. Wenjian He & Yiyang Liu & Huaping Sun & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Chen, Xiaoguang & Khanna, Madhu & Yang, Lu, 2021. "Rising Temperatures Reduce Economic Output of Food Processing Firms in China," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 313797, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), October.

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy;

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