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Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China

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  • Chen, Shuai
  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Xu, Jintao

Abstract

Using a unique county-level panel on single-season rice yield and daily weather outcomes from 1996 to 2009, we examined the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China. We have five key findings: (i) in contrast to nearly all previous studies focusing on rice production in tropical/subtropical regions, we discovered that higher daily minimum temperature during the vegetative stage increased rice yield; (ii) consistent with previous assessments, we found that increased daily maximum temperature during the vegetative and ripening stages reduced rice yield; (iii) the impacts of solar radiation and rainfall on rice yield differed across the plant’s growth stages; (iv) estimated weather effects on yield differed by rice variety; and (v) weather variations caused a net economic loss of $21.6-88.2 million during the sample period, depending on model specifications and econometric estimation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211462, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211462
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211462
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    2. Jesus Eduardo Robles Chavez, 2022. "Allocation of drought relief resources and its biased impact on agricultural production in Mexico," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 3(6), pages 40-80.
    3. Chen, Xiaoguang & Khanna, Madhu & Yang, Lu, 2021. "Rising Temperatures Reduce Economic Output of Food Processing Firms in China," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 313797, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, . "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4).
    5. Netrananda Sahu & Atul Saini & Swadhin Behera & Takahiro Sayama & Sridhara Nayak & Limonlisa Sahu & Weili Duan & Ram Avtar & Masafumi Yamada & R. B. Singh & Kaoru Takara, 2020. "Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    7. Xiaoke Zhu & Qiyun Deng, 2025. "The impacts of extreme heat on wage losses: Evidence from the Chinese agri‐food industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 738-764, July.
    8. Yu, Le & Chen, Yuan & Zhang, Siqi, 2025. "Climate change and staple grain acreage: Regional adaptation in China's agricultural cluster," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Wenjian He & Yiyang Liu & Huaping Sun & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    10. Mohapatra, Souryabrata & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu, 2024. "Unveiling the spatial dynamics of climate impact on rice yield in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 922-945.

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