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How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Wenjian He

    (College of Business, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Yiyang Liu

    (College of Business, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Huaping Sun

    (Institute of Industrial Economics, School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

    (Social Science Research Institute, Tokai University, Hiratsuka-shi, Kanagawa-ken 259-1292, Japan)

Abstract

The global warming phenomenon has undoubtedly brought unprecedented challenges to rice production, vital for food security in Southeast Asian countries and China. Most studies on this topic have focused narrowly on the direct effect of climate change on rice yield, neglecting the indirect effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016, in this paper, we propose and test a mediational effect model to examine the mechanisms of how climate change affects rice yield. We find that climate change leads to changes in functional irrigation areas, farmers’ fertilizing behavior, and agricultural labor supply, and it is these mediating factors that effectively transmit the impact of climate change to China’s rice production. The positive indirect impact of climate change on the factors of production often partially or overly compensates for the adverse direct effect of climate change on rice yield, leading to a surprising observation of the association of climate change with increased rice yield, at least in the short run. We also provide some preliminary policy advice based on the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjian He & Yiyang Liu & Huaping Sun & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:10:p:441-:d:421018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mohapatra, Souryabrata & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu, 2024. "Unveiling the spatial dynamics of climate impact on rice yield in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 922-945.
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    5. Guogang Wang & Shengnan Huang & Yongxiang Zhang & Sicheng Zhao & Chengji Han, 2022. "How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    7. Yongqi Yu & Zexin Chi & Yanfeng Yu & Junjie Zhao & Liulin Peng, 2024. "Boosting agricultural green development: Does socialized service matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(6), pages 1-23, June.
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    9. Abdulla Al Kafy & Saleh Alsulamy & Abdulaziz M. Alsaleh, 2026. "Escalating heat hazard risk in arid urban environments: a two-decade assessment of thermal stress patterns and health risks using UTCI and WBGT indices in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 122(4), pages 1-26, February.
    10. Karla Hernández & Facundo Luna & Carlos Madeira, 2022. "Climate change's impact on real estate prices in Chile," PLOS Sustainability and Transformation, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(11), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Serey Sok & Nyda Chhinh & Sanara Hor & Pheakdey Nguonphan, 2021. "Climate Change Impacts on Rice Cultivation: A Comparative Study of the Tonle Sap and Mekong River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.

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