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China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector

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  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Chen, Shuai

Abstract

We analysed a county-level data set of single-season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China’s rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:333736
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.333736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Shuai Chen & Xiaoguang Chen & Jintao Xu, 2016. "Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 191-205, September.
    4. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    5. Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Junjie & Chen, Minpeng, 2017. "Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 8-31.
    6. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    8. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qinyu Deng & Wei Xie & Ke Wang, 2023. "Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1097-1133, June.
    2. Jiang, Lei & Yang, Linshuang & Wu, Qingyang & Zhang, Xinyue, 2024. "How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Xiaolong Feng & Dong Liu & Jin Zhao & Wei Si & Shenggen Fan, 2025. "Impact of climate change on farmers’ crop production in China: a panel Ricardian analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.

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