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Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data

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  • Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid
  • Alam, Khorshed
  • Gow, Jeff

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the yield of three major rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman and Boro) and three main climate variables (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) for Bangladesh. We use time series data for the 1972–2009 period at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate variables and rice yield using both the ordinary least squares and median (quantile) regression methods. The findings of this study confirm that climate variables have had significant effects on rice yields but that these effects vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature is statistically significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro rice. Minimum temperature has a statistically significant negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Boro rice. Finally, rainfall has a statistically significant effect on Aus and Aman rice. Nonetheless, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced compared with that of rainfall. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature-tolerant rice varieties, particularly for Aman and Boro rice.

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  • Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:112:y:2012:i:c:p:11-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Gohar, Abdelaziz A. & Cashman, Adrian, 2016. "A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 51-64.
    2. Yeong Tey & Mark Brindal, 2014. "Adapting importation policy to global commodity markets: implications of rice import allocation in Singapore," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(8), pages 1277-1293, December.
    3. Emran, M. Shahe & Shilpi, Forhad, 2014. "Agricultural Productivity, Hired Labor, Wages and Poverty: Evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 58099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul & Mohanty, Samarendu & Hoang, Hoa Thi Khanh & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2013. "The effects of natural disasters on farm household income and expenditures: A study on rice farmers in Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-52.
    5. Alam, Khorshed, 2015. "Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: A case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 196-206.
    6. Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad & Chen, Shwu-En & Ghimire, Raju, 2013. "Rice Yield Distribution and Risk Assessment in South Asian Countries: A Statistical Investigation," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 3(1), March.
    7. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    8. repec:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-015-9755-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul & Gumma, Murali K. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Mohanty, Samarendu, 2015. "Quantifying production losses due to drought and submergence of rainfed rice at the household level using remotely sensed MODIS data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 227-235.
    10. repec:eee:agisys:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:107-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:wdevel:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:264-276 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lechan Yang & Zhihao Qin & Lili Tu, 2015. "Responses of rice yields in different rice-cropping systems to climate variables in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(5), pages 951-963, October.
    13. Kazi Iqbal & Md Abu Bakar Siddique¹, 2015. "The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: Evidence from panel data of Bangladesh," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(6), pages 89-101, Special I.
    14. Mottaleb, Khondoker A. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Mishra, Ashok K., 2015. "Intra-Household Resource Allocation under Negative Income Shock: A Natural Experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 557-571.
    15. repec:pid:journl:v:56:y:2017:i:2:p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kima, Aimé Sévérin & Traore, Seydou & Wang, Yu-Min & Chung, Wen-Guey, 2014. "Multi-genes programing and local scale regression for analyzing rice yield response to climate factors using observed and downscaled data in Sahel," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-162.
    17. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    18. Parcell, Joseph L. & Cain, Jewelwayne S., 2013. "Drought Tolerance of Soybean Crops in Missouri," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142507, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Emran, M. Shahe & Shilpi, Forhad, 2018. "Beyond dualism: Agricultural productivity, small towns, and structural change in Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 264-276.

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