IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data

Listed author(s):
  • Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid
  • Alam, Khorshed
  • Gow, Jeff
Registered author(s):

    This study examines the relationship between the yield of three major rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman and Boro) and three main climate variables (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) for Bangladesh. We use time series data for the 1972–2009 period at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate variables and rice yield using both the ordinary least squares and median (quantile) regression methods. The findings of this study confirm that climate variables have had significant effects on rice yields but that these effects vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature is statistically significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro rice. Minimum temperature has a statistically significant negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Boro rice. Finally, rainfall has a statistically significant effect on Aus and Aman rice. Nonetheless, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced compared with that of rainfall. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature-tolerant rice varieties, particularly for Aman and Boro rice.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X12000893
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

    Volume (Year): 112 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 11-16

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:112:y:2012:i:c:p:11-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    2. Alauddin, Mohammad & Tisdell, Clem, 1987. "Trends and projections for Bangladeshi food production : An alternative viewpoint," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 318-331, November.
    3. Boyce, James K., 1987. "Trends and projections for Bangladeshi food production : Rejoinder to M. Alauddin and C. Tisdell," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 332-336, November.
    4. Susanna Reid & Barry Smit & Wayne Caldwell & Suzanne Belliveau, 2007. "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate risks in Ontario agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 609-637, May.
    5. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    6. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Report 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4387, June.
    7. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    8. Burhan Ozkan & Handan Akcaoz, 2002. "Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in the Southern Turkey," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 367-380, December.
    9. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
    10. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    11. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    12. Cynthia Rosenzweig, 1989. "Global Climate Change: Predictions and Observations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1265-1271.
    13. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, 05.
    14. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(1), May.
    15. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    16. Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), December.
    17. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Harry M. Kaiser & Susan J. Riha & Daniel S. Wilks & David G. Rossiter & Radha Sampath, 1993. "A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Climate Warming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 387-398.
    19. Shamsuddin Shahid & Houshang Behrawan, 2008. "Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 391-413, September.
    20. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:112:y:2012:i:c:p:11-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.