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Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-

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  • Joshi, Niraj Prakash
  • Maharjan, Keshav Lall
  • Piya, Luni

Abstract

Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical (1978-2008) climatic data and yield data for the food-crops. The yield growth rate of all the food-crops is positive. However, the growth rate for all crops, except potato and wheat, is below population growth rate during the period. Climate variables like temperature and precipitation are the important determinants of crop yields. Trend of precipitation is neither increasing nor decreasing significantly during this period. However, temperature is increasing by 0.7 0C during the period. Climate variables show some influences on the yield of these major food-crops in Nepal. Increase in summer rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to rice yield. Also, increase in summer rain and minimum temperature has positive impact on potato yield. However, increase in summer rain and maximum temperature adversely affected the yield of maize and millet. Increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current trend of winter rain and temperature. Consideration of spatial variation in similar type of study in Nepal that will be helpful in identifying the region more vulnerable to climate change in terms of crop yield is highly recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35379
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    Cited by:

    1. Bista, Raghu, 2019. "Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal," MPRA Paper 98788, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2019.
    2. Mulmi, Prajula & Block, Steven A. & Shively, Gerald E. & Masters, William A., 2016. "Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 63-75.
    3. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    4. Andrea Karin Barrueto & Juerg Merz & Nicole Clot & Thomas Hammer, 2017. "Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Shobha Poudel & Shinya Funakawa & Hitoshi Shinjo, 2017. "Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Devkota, Niranjan & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 17(2), December.
    7. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
    8. Andrea Karin Barrueto & Juerg Merz & Thomas Kohler & Thomas Hammer, 2018. "What Prompts Agricultural Innovation in Rural Nepal: A Study Using the Example of Macadamia and Walnut Trees as Novel Cash Crops," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Kima, Aimé Sévérin & Traore, Seydou & Wang, Yu-Min & Chung, Wen-Guey, 2014. "Multi-genes programing and local scale regression for analyzing rice yield response to climate factors using observed and downscaled data in Sahel," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-162.
    10. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    11. Henry De-Graft Acquah, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of Climatic Variables and Crop Area on Maize Yield in Ghana," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 3(9), pages 313-321.
    12. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    13. van Oort, Bob & Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt & Baral, Himlal & Rai, Rajesh Kumar & Dhakal, Madhav & Rucevska, Ieva & Adhikari, Ramesh, 2015. "Assessing community values to support mapping of ecosystem services in the Koshi river basin, Nepal," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 70-80.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate variables; temperature; rainfall; food-crops; Nepal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

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