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Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal

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  • Devkota, Niranjan
  • Paija, Nirash

Abstract

This study assesses the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between paddy yields and climate variables, particularly maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, using time-series data from 1971 to 2014 in Nepal. Applying Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Regression or ARDL bounds testing approach for analysis of co-integration between the variables, we confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the variables. Furthermore, we employ Granger non-causality tests for robustness. The findings reveal that rainfall has substantial effects on the rice yield. Specifically, a positive and significant relationship exists between rice yields and rainfall and that this relationship is unidirectional. Rainfall impacts on rice yield and holding all things constant, a 1 mm increase in rainfall increases rice yields by 0.65 percent. Given the effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, agricultural scientists should focus on research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties in the production of rice yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Devkota, Niranjan & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 17(2), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:phajad:307978
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307978
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    Cited by:

    1. Abbas Ali Chandio & Waqar Akram & Uzma Bashir & Fayyaz Ahmad & Sultan Adeel & Yuansheng Jiang, 2023. "Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1614-1644, February.
    2. Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky & Kadir, Kadir, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Paddy Yield in Indonesia: Farmers' Experience based on the 2021 Crop-Cutting Survey's Results," MPRA Paper 119446, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2023.
    3. Abbas Ali Chandio & Fayyaz Ahmad & Ghulam Raza Sargani & Asad Amin & Martinson Ankrah Twumasi, 2022. "Analyzing the effective role of formal credit and technological development for rice cultivation," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 683-711, June.
    4. Chamila Kumari Chandrasiri & Takuji W. Tsusaka & Tien D. N. Ho & Farhad Zulfiqar & Avishek Datta, 2023. "Impacts of climate change on paddy yields in different climatic zones of Sri Lanka: a panel data approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 455-489, June.
    5. Abbas Ali Chandio & Yasir A. Nasereldin & Dao Le Trang Anh & Yashuang Tang & Ghulam Raza Sargani & Huaquan Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Technological Progress and Climate Change on Food Crop Production: Evidence from Sichuan—China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Ozdemir, Dicle & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Modelling the impact of climate change and advanced agricultural technologies on grain output: Recent evidence from China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).
    7. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    8. Abbas Ali Chandio & Yuansheng Jiang & Waqar Akram & Ilhan Ozturk & Abdul Rauf & Aamir Ali Mirani & Huaquan Zhang, 2023. "The impact of R&D investment on grain crops production in China: Analysing the role of agricultural credit and CO2 emissions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4120-4138, October.

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