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Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal

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  • Bista, Raghu

Abstract

Climate variability in Nepal has become a big environmental issue. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitude, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. We use time series model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal. The time series analysis finds climate variability in the different parts of Nepal in which all months have variability of temperature and rainfall precipitation. From 1975 to 2010, temperature raises annually by 20 C. However, rainfall is declining. It is forecasted change of temperature by 60c over next 40 years. In case of rainfall, it is forecasted constant and results drought in high altitude and flood in low altitude. Climate variability may be a big threat in the different parts of Nepal.

Suggested Citation

  • Bista, Raghu, 2019. "Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal," MPRA Paper 98788, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98788
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98788/1/MPRA_paper_98788.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bartlett, R. & Bharati, Luna & Pant, Dhruba & Hosterman, H. & McCornick, P. G., 2010. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in Nepal," IWMI Working Papers H043439, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Ahmed, Mirza Nomman & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2011. "Using the Ricardian Technique to estimate the impacts of climate change on Crop Farming in Pakistan," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114217, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bista, Raghu, 2019. "Groping climate vulnerability in western mountainous Nepal: applying climate vulnerability index," MPRA Paper 99047, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jan 2019.
    2. Bista, Raghu, 2019. "Household Production, Time Allocation Behavior and Climate Change: A case of Nepal," MPRA Paper 100622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2019.
    3. Bista, Raghu, 2020. "The Impact of Vulnerability and Income distribution on Inequality and Poverty: Analysis of Flood and landslides in Vulnerable Locations of Nepal," MPRA Paper 98935, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Dec 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate variability; environment; altitude; temperature; rainfall; Nepal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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