IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ediscc/v9y2025i2d10.1007_s41885-025-00173-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Bangladesh: A Ricardian Approach for Sustainable Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Md Asduzzaman Kiron

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Md Elias Hossain

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Md. Mehedi Hasan Chokdar

    (University of Rajshahi)

Abstract

Agriculture remains a vital sector in Bangladesh, employing over 40% of the workforce and contributing significantly to manufacturing and services. However, climate change presents a growing threat to agricultural productivity, particularly rice, the country’s staple crop. This study examines the economic impact of climate change on rice production across nine climate zones in Bangladesh: Bogura, Cumilla, Faridpur, Jessore, Mymensingh, Patuakhali, Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Tangail. Utilizing the Ricardian approach, which estimates the net value of land based on crop revenues, the study integrates primary data from 450 households and secondary data on temperature and rainfall from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The analysis reveals that rising temperatures during the dry season positively affect net crop revenue, while higher temperatures during the wet season have the opposite effect. Rainfall shows a marginally beneficial impact on rice production in both seasons, with the temperature-rainfall interaction yielding mixed outcomes: positive during the dry season but negative during the wet season. Factors such as the age and gender of household heads, access to extension services, credit availability, irrigation, soil quality, and land type significantly influence net crop revenues. The study offers policy recommendations to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on rice production and promote sustainable agricultural practices in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Asduzzaman Kiron & Md Elias Hossain & Md. Mehedi Hasan Chokdar, 2025. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Bangladesh: A Ricardian Approach for Sustainable Agriculture," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 359-373, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41885-025-00173-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-025-00173-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41885-025-00173-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41885-025-00173-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(01), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    3. Seo, Sung-No Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Munasinghe, Mohan, 2005. "Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 581-596, October.
    4. Md. Asduzzaman Kiron, 2023. "Profitability Analysis Of Boro Rice Farming: The Case Of Naogaon District Of Bangladesh," Food & Agribusiness Management (FABM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 53-65, May.
    5. Thomas Chatzopoulos & Christian Lippert, 2016. "Endogenous farm-type selection, endogenous irrigation, and spatial effects in Ricardian models of climate change," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 217-235.
    6. Eid, Helmy M. & El-Marsafawy, Samia M. & Ouda, Samiha A., 2007. "Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4293, The World Bank.
    7. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    8. Hossain, Mohammad Shakhawat & Arshad, Muhammad & Qian, Lu & Zhao, Minjuan & Mehmood, Yasir & Kächele, Harald, 2019. "Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Gurdeep Singh Malhi & Manpreet Kaur & Prashant Kaushik, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    11. Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Khorshed Alam & Jeff Gow, 2014. "Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: An econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 405-416.
    12. Mano, Reneth & Nhemachena, Charles, 2007. "Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4292, The World Bank.
    13. Md. Ruhul Amin & Junbiao Zhang & Mingmei Yang, 2015. "Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossain, Mohammad Shakhawat & Arshad, Muhammad & Qian, Lu & Zhao, Minjuan & Mehmood, Yasir & Kächele, Harald, 2019. "Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Mohapatra, Souryabrata & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu, 2024. "Unveiling the spatial dynamics of climate impact on rice yield in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 922-945.
    3. Jeonghyun Kim & Hojeong Park & Jong Ahn Chun & Sanai Li, 2018. "Adaptation Strategies under Climate Change for Sustainable Agricultural Productivity in Cambodia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Sanzidur Rahman, 2017. "Climate, Agroecology and Socio-Economic Determinants of Food Availability from Agriculture in Bangladesh, (1948–2008)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Sabrina Auci & Donatella Vignani, 2020. "Climate variability and agriculture in Italy: a stochastic frontier analysis at the regional level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 381-409, July.
    7. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    8. Ollier, Maxime & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & Humblot, Pierre, 2024. "An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Moretti, Michele & Vanschoenwinkel, Janka & Van Passel, Steven, 2021. "Accounting for externalities in cross-sectional economic models of climate change impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. AMOUZAY, Hassan & El Ghini, Ahmed, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Key Spatial Econometric Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture," MPRA Paper 123222, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2024.
    11. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Ajay Kumar, 2014. "Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in India: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 111-122.
    13. Janka Vanschoenwinkel & Steven Passel, 2018. "Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 225-234, March.
    14. Agha Ali Akram & Babatunde Abidoye & Sudha Kannan & Kehinde Omotoso, 2025. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture: A Ricardian analysis of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-19, March.
    15. M. Mehedi Hasan & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Mohammad Jakaria & Mahiuddin Alamgir, 2018. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals 2 (SDG2) and 6 (SDG6)," Discussion Papers Series 599, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Charlotte Fabri & Michele Moretti & Steven Van Passel, 2022. "On the (ir)relevance of heatwaves in climate change impacts on European agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-20, September.
    17. Chau Trinh Nguyen & Frank Scrimgeour, 2022. "Measuring the impact of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam: A panel Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 37-51, January.
    18. Jawid, Asadullah, 2020. "A Ricardian analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from the farms in the central highlands of Afghanistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    20. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41885-025-00173-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.