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Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt : a ricardian approach

Author

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  • Eid, Helmy M.
  • El-Marsafawy, Samia M.
  • Ouda, Samiha A.

Abstract

This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties.

Suggested Citation

  • Eid, Helmy M. & El-Marsafawy, Samia M. & Ouda, Samiha A., 2007. "Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4293, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production: I--Production Efficiency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 8-27, March.
    2. Braverman, Avishay & Hammer, Jeffrey S & Gron, Anne, 1987. "Multimarket Analysis of Agricultural Price Policies in an Operational Context: The Case of Cyprus," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(2), pages 337-356, January.
    3. Heady, Christopher J. & Mitra, Pradeep K., 1982. "Restricted redistributive taxation, shadow prices and trade policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, February.
    4. Deaton, A., 1988. "New Approaches To Household Survey Data From Developing Countries," Papers 139, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Salvo, Maria & Raffaelli, Roberta & Moser, Riccarda, 2013. "The impact of climate change on permanent crops in an Alpine region: A Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 23-32.
    2. Bruce McCarl & Mark Musumba & Joel Smith & Paul Kirshen & Russell Jones & Akram El-Ganzori & Mohamed Ali & Mossad Kotb & Ibrahim El-Shinnawy & Mona El-Agizy & Mohamed Bayoumi & Riina Hynninen, 2015. "Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1097-1109, October.
    3. Kostandini, Genti & La Rovere, Roberto & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2013. "Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 213-226.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Environmental Economics&Policies; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions;

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