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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce McCarl
  • Mark Musumba
  • Joel Smith
  • Paul Kirshen
  • Russell Jones
  • Akram El-Ganzori
  • Mohamed Ali
  • Mossad Kotb
  • Ibrahim El-Shinnawy
  • Mona El-Agizy
  • Mohamed Bayoumi
  • Riina Hynninen

Abstract

Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce McCarl & Mark Musumba & Joel Smith & Paul Kirshen & Russell Jones & Akram El-Ganzori & Mohamed Ali & Mossad Kotb & Ibrahim El-Shinnawy & Mona El-Agizy & Mohamed Bayoumi & Riina Hynninen, 2015. "Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1097-1109, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:20:y:2015:i:7:p:1097-1109
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eid, Helmy M. & El-Marsafawy, Samia M. & Ouda, Samiha A., 2007. "Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4293, The World Bank.
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    3. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hazem S. Kassem & Abdel Raouf Suleiman Bello & Bader M. Alotaibi & Fahd O. Aldosri & Gary S. Straquadine, 2019. "Climate Change Adaptation in the Delta Nile Region of Egypt: Implications for Agricultural Extension," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Mohmmed, Alnail & Li, Jianhua & Elaru, Joshua & Elbashier, Mohammed M.A. & Keesstra, Saskia & Artemi, Cerdà & Martin, Kabenge & Reuben, Makomere & Teffera, Zeben, 2018. "Assessing drought vulnerability and adaptation among farmers in Gadaref region, Eastern Sudan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 402-413.
    3. Abdelrahman Ali & Chunping Xia & Moustafa Ismaiel & N’Banan Ouattara & Irfan Mahmood & Dessalegn Anshiso, 2021. "Analysis of determinants to mitigate food losses and waste in the developing countries: empirical evidence from Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 1-26, August.

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