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Climate change and agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial sample selection model

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  • Patrick S. Ward
  • Raymond J. G. M. Florax
  • Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Abstract

Using spatially explicit data, we estimate a cereal yield response function using a recently developed estimator for spatial error models when endogenous sample selection is of concern. Our results suggest that yields across Sub-Saharan Africa will decline with projected climatic changes, and that failing to control for sample selection and spatially correlated errors leads to biased estimates of some climate impacts. We also find evidence that the estimated elasticities are essentially no different from those of simpler models ignoring those features in the data. Simulation experiments indicate the extent to which improvements in irrigation can ameliorate the effects of climate change.

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  • Patrick S. Ward & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2014. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial sample selection model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 199-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:199-226.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbt025
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    2. Gkiza, Ioanna & Nastis, Stefanos, 2018. "High Spatial Analysis on the Effects of Climate Change on Cereal Yield in Greece," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 1).
    3. Jean-Luc Mubenga-Tshitaka & Johane Dikgang & John W. Muteba Mwamba & Dambala Gelo, 2023. "Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2181281-218, December.
    4. Patrick S. Ward & Valerien O. Pede, 2015. "Capturing social network effects in technology adoption: the spatial diffusion of hybrid rice in Bangladesh," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 225-241, April.
    5. Mohammad Sepahvand, 2022. "Agricultural Productivity in Burkina Faso: The Role of Gender and Risk Attitudes," Working Papers ECARES 2022-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Sepahvand, Mohammad H, 2019. "Agricultural productivity in Burkina Faso: The role of gender andrisk attitudes," Working Paper Series 2019:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    7. Börner, Jan & Shively, Gerald E. & Wunder, Sven & Wyman, Miriam, 2012. "How do rural households respond to economic shocks? Insights from hierarchical analysis using global data," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126143, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Baah, Ackom Justice, 2016. "Seasonal Variations in Climatic Elements and Cocoa Production: Evidence from Central Region, Ghana," MPRA Paper 101319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Muhammad Imran Qureshi & Usama Awan & Zeeshan Arshad & Amran Md. Rasli & Khalid Zaman & Faisal Khan, 2016. "Dynamic linkages among energy consumption, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural production in Pakistan: sustainable agriculture key to policy success," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 367-381, October.
    10. Rabovič, Renata & Čížek, Pavel, 2023. "Estimation of spatial sample selection models: A partial maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 214-243.
    11. Kahsay, Goytom Abraha & Hansen, Lars Gårn, 2016. "The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 54-64.
    12. Dogan, Osman & Taspinar, Suleyman, 2016. "Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models," MPRA Paper 82829, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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