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The Effect of Climate Change and Adaptation Policy on Agricultural Production in Eastern Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Goytom Abraha Kahsay

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Lars Gårn Hansen

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds the potential loss from predicted climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Goytom Abraha Kahsay & Lars Gårn Hansen, 2014. "The Effect of Climate Change and Adaptation Policy on Agricultural Production in Eastern Africa," IFRO Working Paper 2014/08, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2014_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Michée A. Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2021. "Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects, catch‐up and convergence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 143-170, January.
    2. Amuakwa-Mensah, Salome & Surry, Yves, 2022. "Association between rural electrification and agricultural output: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Nicholas Ngepah & Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "Forecasting the Economic Growth Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa in the 2030 and 2050 Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Annegrace Zembe & Livhuwani David Nemakonde & Paul Chipangura & Christo Coetzee & Fortune Mangara, 2024. "A Technological Perspective of Bringing Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, and Food Security Together in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Lachaud, Michée A. & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E., 2022. "A Bayesian statistical analysis of return to agricultural R&D investment in Latin America: Implications for food security," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Adom, Philip Kofi & Adams, Samuel, 2020. "Decomposition of technical efficiency in agricultural production in Africa into transient and persistent technical efficiency under heterogeneous technologies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Veljanoska, Stefanija, 2018. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 42-51.
    8. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Khanal, Uttam & Wilson, Clevo & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Lee, Boon, 2018. "Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change, Its Determinants and Impacts on Rice Yield in Nepal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 139-147.
    10. Stefanija Veljanoska, 2017. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Policy Papers 2017.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    11. Jean Galbert, ONGONO OLINGA, 2023. "Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change: An Evidence of a non-linear Relationship in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 117669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Takuto Sakamoto, 2016. "Mobility and Sustainability: A Computational Model of African Pastoralists," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 6(1), pages 59-75, March.
    13. Stefanija Veljanoska, 2017. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Working Papers 2017.08, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    14. Jean-Luc Mubenga-Tshitaka & Johane Dikgang & John W. Muteba Mwamba & Dambala Gelo, 2023. "Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2181281-218, December.
    15. Mohammad Rondhi & Ahmad Fatikhul Khasan & Yasuhiro Mori & Takumi Kondo, 2019. "Assessing the Role of the Perceived Impact of Climate Change on National Adaptation Policy: The Case of Rice Farming in Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Sitko, Nicholas J. & Scognamillo, Antonio & Malevolti, Giulia, 2021. "Does receiving food aid influence the adoption of climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia and Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Amadu, Festus O. & Miller, Daniel C. & McNamara, Paul E., 2020. "Agroforestry as a pathway to agricultural yield impacts in climate-smart agriculture investments: Evidence from southern Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Aményon Akakpo & Shi Xinjie & Bingyu Huangfu, 2025. "Influence of the rural electrification program on food security in Togo," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(2), pages 363-386, April.
    19. Meselu Tegenie Mellaku & Travis W. Reynolds & Teshale Woldeamanuel, 2018. "Linear Programming-Based Cropland Allocation to Enhance Performance of Smallholder Crop Production: A Pilot Study in Abaro Kebele, Ethiopia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Clifford James Fagariba & Shaoxian Song & Serge Kevin Gildas Soule Baoro, 2018. "Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Constraints in Northern Ghana: Evidence of Farmers in Sissala West District," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    21. Nicholas Apergis & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2025. "The asymmetric role of temperature deviations in economic growth: Fresh evidence from global countries and panel quantile estimates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 893-903, January.
    22. Jean-Luc Mubenga-Tshitaka & Dambala Gelo & Johane Dikgang & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2024. "Panel threshold effect of climate variability on agricultural output in Eastern African countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2345437-234, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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