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Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China


  • Rainer Holst

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Xiaohua Yu

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Carola Grün

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)


This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South China could entail an increase of grain output by 3.79 million tons or an economic benefit of around USD 798 million due to the increasing mean output. However the impact of global warming in north China is negative, small and insignificant. In addition, Hausman tests reveal no endogeneity of climate variables in Chinese grain production.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainer Holst & Xiaohua Yu & Carola Grün, 2011. "Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 68, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:068

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. José Gustavo Féres & Eustáquio José Reis & Juliana Speranza, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181438190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Saumya Verma & Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen, 2020. "Does climate change make foodgrain yields more unpredictable? Evidence from India," Working papers 305, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Anwar Hussain & Rabia Bangash, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 163-187.
    3. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item


    Agriculture; grain production; climate change; production risk; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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