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Climate Change and Production Risk in Chinese Aquaculture


  • Rainer Holst

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Xiaohua Yu

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)


Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainer Holst & Xiaohua Yu, 2011. "Climate Change and Production Risk in Chinese Aquaculture," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 64, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:064

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. José Gustavo Féres & Eustáquio José Reis & Juliana Speranza, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181438190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Ragner Tveterås & G. H. Wan, 2000. "Flexible panel data models for risky production technologies with an application to salmon aquaculture," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 367-389.
    3. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    4. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item


    Aquaculture; climate change; production risk; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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