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Climate Change And Production Risk In Chinese Aquaculture

  • Holst, Rainer
  • Yu, Xiaohua

Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91275
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Paper provided by International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium in its series Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany with number 91275.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iatr10:91275
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://iatrcweb.org/

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