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Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity

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  • You, Liangzhi
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Fang, Cheng
  • Wood, Stanley

Abstract

Climate change continues to have major impact on crop productivity all over the world. While many researchers have evaluated the possible impact of global warming on crop yields using mainly indirect crop simulation models, there are relatively few direct assessments on the impact of observed climate change on past crop yield and growth. We use a 1979-2000 Chinese crop-specific panel dataset to investigate the climate impact on Chinese wheat yield growth. We find that a 1 percent increase in wheat growing season temperature reduces wheat yields by about 0.3 percent. This negative impact is less severe than those reported in other regions. Rising temperature over the past two decades accounts for a 2.4 percent decline in wheat yields in China while the majority of the wheat yield growth, 75 percent, comes from increased use of physical inputs. We emphasize the necessity of including such major influencing factors as physical inputs into the crop yield-climate function in order to have an accurate estimation of climate impact on crop yields.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity," EPTD Discussion Papers 58588, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eptddp:58588
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.58588
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    2. Yaqin He & Brian J. Revell & Bofeng Leng & Zhongchao Feng, 2017. "The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR) Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Zulfiqar, Farhad, 2010. "Estimation of Wheat Yield Response under different Economic, Location and Climatic Conditions in Punjab," MPRA Paper 26503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Baquero-Haeberlin, Irma & Barreto-Triana, Nancy & Espitia-Malagón, Eduardo & Falck Zepeda, José & Fierro-Guzmán, Humberto & López, Nancy, 2006. "An exploration of the potential benefits of integrated pest management systems and the use of insect resistant potatoes to control the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny) in Ventaquemada,," EPTD discussion papers 152, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Falck-Zepeda, José & Komen, John & Linacre, Nicholas & MacLaren, Donald, 2006. "Risk assessment and management of genetically modified organisms under Australia's Gene Technology Act:," EPTD discussion papers 157, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    7. Gruere, Guillaume P. & Giuliani, Alessandra & Smale, Melinda, 2006. "Marketing underutilized plant species for the benefit of the poor: a conceptual framework," EPTD Discussion Papers 55418, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Ramezani Etedali, Hadi & Ahmadi, Mojgan, 2021. "Evaluation of various meteorological datasets in estimation yield and actual evapotranspiration of wheat and maize (case study: Qazvin plain)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    9. Gruere, Guillaume P., 2006. "An analysis of trade related international regulations of genetically modified food and their effects on developing countries," EPTD Discussion Papers 55422, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Hansen, James M. & Tuan, Francis C. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2012. "Climate Change and The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization: Possible Effects on China's Grain Trade," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126878, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. You, Liangzhi, 2012. "A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 690-703.
    13. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Ozdemir, Dicle & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Modelling the impact of climate change and advanced agricultural technologies on grain output: Recent evidence from China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).
    14. Meihong Ma & Huixiao Wang & Pengfei Jia & Ronghua Liu & Zhen Hong & Laura Gabrielle Labriola & Yang Hong & Lijuan Miao, 2018. "Investigation of inducements and defenses of flash floods and urban waterlogging in Fuzhou, China, from 1950 to 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 803-818, March.
    15. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Di Falco, Salvatore & Smale, Melinda, 2006. "Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat genetic diversity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia," EPTD discussion papers 153, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
    17. Smale, Melinda & Zambrano, Patricia & Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Gruere, Guillaume P., 2006. "Parables: applied economics literature about the impact of genetically engineered crop varieties in developing economies," EPTD Discussion Papers 55412, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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