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Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk

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  • Kim, Man-Keun
  • Pang, Arwin

Abstract

The relationship among rice yield and weather variables in Korea is explored using a stochastic production function. The results reveal that average rice yield is positively related to temperature and negatively associated with precipitation. Both temperature and precipitation, which are risk-increasing inputs, are positively related to rice yield variability. The widened yield variability can be transferred to the fluctuation of rice production and rice price instability. Larger market risk is expected in the future since both temperature and precipitation are anticipated to increase. An evaluation of climate change impact on rice yield variability reveals that it may increase by up to 10%~20%. Reducing yield variability and managing market risk would be the primary goals of the government's farm policy and research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jordng:90682
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.90682
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    1. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    2. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Houma, Abdusslam A. & Kamal, Md Rowshon & Mojid, Md Abdul & Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri B. & Wayayok, A., 2021. "Climate change impacts on rice yield of a large-scale irrigation scheme in Malaysia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    5. Saumya Verma & Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen, 2020. "Does climate change make foodgrain yields more unpredictable? Evidence from India," Working papers 305, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    7. M. Mehedi Hasan & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Mohammad Jakaria & Mahiuddin Alamgir, 2018. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals 2 (SDG2) and 6 (SDG6)," Discussion Papers Series 599, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Elsadek, Elsayed Ahmed & Zhang, Ke & Hamoud, Yousef Alhaj & Mousa, Ahmed & Awad, Ahmed & Abdallah, Mohammed & Shaghaleh, Hiba & Hamad, Amar Ali Adam & Jamil, Muhammad Tahir & Elbeltagi, Ahmed, 2024. "Impacts of climate change on rice yields in the Nile River Delta of Egypt: A large-scale projection analysis based on CMIP6," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    9. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    11. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.
    12. Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Shahbaz Bhatti & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq & Kamran Javed, 2020. "Investigation The Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton: Empirical Evidence From Cotton Zone," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4, February.
    14. Cho, Seojin & Yoon, Heeyeun, 2025. "Evaluating the economic and environmental benefits of rice-soybean diversification in South Korea," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
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