IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach


  • Kabubo-Mariara, Jane
  • Karanja, Fredrick K


This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers'perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4334

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Abbas Valadkhani & William F. Mitchell, 2002. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Petroleum Prices on Inflation and Household Expenditures in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(2), pages 122-132.
    3. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    4. Anderson, Ronald W & Gilbert, Christopher L, 1988. "Commodity Agreements and Commodity Markets: Lessons from Tin," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    6. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    7. John Baffes, 1997. "Explaining stationary variables with non-stationary regressors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 69-75.
    8. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
    11. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    12. Evans, Mark & Lewis, Andrew C., 2005. "Dynamic metals demand model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-69, March.
    13. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1987. "International commodity agreements: Design and performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 591-616, May.
    14. Kausik Chaudhuri, 2001. "Long-run prices of primary commodities and oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 531-538.
    15. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Kelvin Mulungu & Gelson Tembo, 2015. "Effects of Weather Variability on Crop Abandonment," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Ochieng, Justus & Kirimi, Lilian & Mathenge, Mary, 2016. "Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Production: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers in Kenya," Working Papers 229711, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    4. Md. Ruhul Amin & Junbiao Zhang & Mingmei Yang, 2015. "Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Ayala Wineman & Nicole M. Mason & Justus Ochieng & Lilian Kirimi, 2017. "Weather extremes and household welfare in rural Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 281-300, April.
    6. repec:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9793-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ngigi, Marther W. & Birner, Regina, 2013. "Shocks, livestock assets and climate change adaptation in Kenya," 2013 AAAE Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161468, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Amjath-Babu, T.S. & Krupnik, Timothy J. & Kaechele, Harald & Aravindakshan, Sreejith & Sietz, Diana, 2016. "Transitioning to groundwater irrigated intensified agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: An indicator based assessment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 125-135.
    9. Basurto, Saul, 2016. "A Mexican Ricardian analysis: land rental prices or net revenues?," 90th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2016, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 236362, Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.
    11. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    12. Lazzaroni, S. & Bedi, A.S., 2014. "Weather variability and food consumption," ISS Working Papers - General Series 51272, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    13. Curran, Michael & Kiteme, Boniface & Wünscher, Tobias & Koellner, Thomas & Hellweg, Stefanie, 2016. "Pay the farmer, or buy the land?—Cost-effectiveness of payments for ecosystem services versus land purchases or easements in Central Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 59-67.
    14. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    15. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:1989-:d:117061 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Climate Change; Environmental Economics&Policies; Common Property Resource Development; Global Environment Facility; Crops&Crop Management Systems;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.