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Producer Responses to Surface Water Availability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation

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  • Dale T. Manning
  • Christopher Goemans
  • Alexander Maas

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to bring changes in weather and water availability. The effect on agriculture depends on the ability of producers to modify their practices in response to changing distributions. We develop a two-stage theoretical model of planting and irrigation decisions and use a unique dataset to empirically estimate how producers respond to changes in expected water availability and deviations from expectations. As water supplies decrease, producers respond by planting fewer acres and concentrating the application of water. Highlighting the importance of adaptation in this context, failure to account for this behavioral response overstates climate change impacts by 17%.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale T. Manning & Christopher Goemans & Alexander Maas, 2017. "Producer Responses to Surface Water Availability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 93(4), pages 631-653.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:93:y:2017:i:4:p:631-653
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.93.4.631
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    1. Wallander, Steven & Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2022. "Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response," USDA Miscellaneous 316790, United States Department of Agriculture.
    2. Lim, Krisha & Wichmann, Bruno & Luckert, Martin, 2021. "Adaptation, spatial effects, and targeting: Evidence from Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M. & Weng, Weizhe, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture: Water-Temperature Interactions and Adaptation in the Western U.S," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274306, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Jordan, Cristian & Donoso, Guillermo & Speelman, Stijn, 2021. "Measuring the effect of improved irrigation technologies on irrigated agriculture. A study case in Central Chile," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    5. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    6. Maas, Alexander S. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Fuller, Kate B., 2022. "An Exploration of Preferences for Soil Health Practices in Potato Production," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322072, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Maas, Alexander S. & Lu, Liang, 2020. "“Elections have Consequences”: Partisan Politics are Literally Killing Us," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Smith, Sarah, 2022. "Doing More with Less: Margins of Response to Water Scarcity in Californian Irrigated Agriculture," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322378, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    10. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
    11. Jian Shi & JunJie Wu & Beau Olen, 2022. "Impacts of climate and weather on irrigation technology adoption and agricultural water use in the U.S. pacific northwest," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(3), pages 387-406, May.
    12. Wallander, Steven & Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2022. "Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response," Economic Brief 327233, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Sarah E. Anderson & Terry L. Anderson & Alice C. Hill & Matthew E. Kahn & Howard Kunreuther & Gary D. Libecap & Hari Mantripragada & Pierre Mérel & Andrew J. Plantinga & V. Kerry Smith, 2019. "The Critical Role Of Markets In Climate Change Adaptation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Ghosh, Prasenjit & Miao, Ruiqing, 2018. "Agricultural Irrigation’s Responses to Federal Crop Insurance in the United States," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 275667, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Danyelle Branco & José Féres, 2021. "Weather Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from Rural Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1359-1377, August.
    16. Kelly M. Cobourn & Xinde Ji & Siân Mooney & Neil F. Crescenti, 2022. "The effect of prior appropriation water rights on land‐allocation decisions in irrigated agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 947-975, May.
    17. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Gu, Haiying & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "The non-linear effect of daily weather on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Deines, Jillian M. & Schipanski, Meagan E. & Golden, Bill & Zipper, Samuel C. & Nozari, Soheil & Rottler, Caitlin & Guerrero, Bridget & Sharda, Vaishali, 2020. "Transitions from irrigated to dryland agriculture in the Ogallala Aquifer: Land use suitability and regional economic impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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