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Avoiding the middle‐income trap: The spatial–temporal effects of human capital on regional economic growth in Northeast China

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  • Tingting Yu
  • Ah Rong
  • Feilong Hao

Abstract

Northeast China has seen a remarkable transition from rustbelt to economic revival over the past decade. However, promoting sustainable economic growth is a major issue facing Northeast China after entering the middle‐income stage of development. Based on a panel data set of 34 prefecture‐level cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2018, this paper constructs a human capital index in terms of both quantity (educational capital) and quality (health capital) and uses the generalized method of moments (GMMs) to explore the spatial–temporal effects of human capital on economic growth under the “middle‐income trap.” The results show that a key factor keeping Northeast China in the middle‐income stage is the loss of highly qualified labor and that the previous attribution of the economic downturn to the population exodus is inaccurate. Although the results of this study indicate that the demographic dividend during the demographic transition period has ended in Northeast China and that the associated low‐cost advantage has been lost, the “talent dividend” can still be obtained by improving the level of human capital and thus promoting sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tingting Yu & Ah Rong & Feilong Hao, 2022. "Avoiding the middle‐income trap: The spatial–temporal effects of human capital on regional economic growth in Northeast China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 536-558, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:53:y:2022:i:2:p:536-558
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.12597
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhixuan Xue & Xiangli Wu & Yilin Zhang & Siji Zhu & Ni Zhang & Shuhang Zhao, 2024. "Multidimensional Spatiotemporal Correlation Effect of County-Scale Population Shrinkage: A Case Study of Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Xuhui Ding & Yong Chen & Min Li & Narisu Liu, 2022. "Booster or Killer? Research on Undertaking Transferred Industries and Residents’ Well-Being Improvements," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Yilin Chen, 2024. "Regional decline and structural changes in Northeast China: an exploratory space–time approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 397-427, June.
    4. Edeh, Jude & Prévot, Frédéric, 2024. "Beyond funding: The moderating role of firms' R&D human capital on government support and venture capital for regional innovation in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Feng Shi & Weiwei Cao & Runhua Huang & Wei Geng, 2025. "Spatially heterogeneous drivers of hukou transfer intentions in China: a geographically weighted logistic regression analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-30, June.

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