IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chk/cuhkdc/00019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences

Author

Listed:
  • Hongbin Li
  • Junsen Zhang
  • Yi Zhu

Abstract

This paper measures the effect of China's one-child policy on fertility by exploring the natural experiment that has been created by China's unique affirmative birth control policy, which is possibly the largest social experiment in human history. Because the one-child policy only applied to Han Chinese, but not to ethnic minorities, we construct a differences-in-differences estimator to identify the effect of the policy on fertility. Such a natural experiment is a rare opportunity, whether for the analysis of the effect on fertility or for the analysis of economics in general. Using two rounds of the Chinese Population Census, we find that the one-child policy has had a large effect on fertility. The average effect on the post-treatment cohorts on the probability of having a second child is as large as -11 percentage points. We also find that the magnitude is larger in urban areas and for more educated women. Our robustness tests suggest that our differences-in-differences estimates of the effect of the one-child policy are not very likely to be driven by other policy or socio-economic changes that have affected the Han and the minorities differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2005. "The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences," Discussion Papers 00019, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhkdc:00019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/~discusspaper/00019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anrudh Jain, 1981. "The effect of female education on fertility: A simple explanation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(4), pages 577-595, November.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:51:y:1984:i:23:p:319-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Birdsall, Nancy, 1988. "Economic approaches to population growth," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 477-542, Elsevier.
    4. Zhang, Junsen, 1994. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in Hebei Province, China: An Application of the Sequential Logit Model," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 67-90, October.
    5. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-240, January.
    6. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
    7. Dennis Tao Yang & Marjorie McElroy, 2000. "Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 389-392, May.
    8. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    9. Ahn, Namkee, 1994. "Effects of the One-Child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 63-78.
    10. Whittington, Leslie A & Alm, James & Peters, H Elizabeth, 1990. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 545-556, June.
    11. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    12. Jere R. Behrman & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2004. "Returns to Birthweight," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 586-601, May.
    13. Zhang, Junsen & Spencer, Byron G, 1992. "Who Signs China's One-Child Certificate, and Why?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 203-214, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hongbin Li & Xinzheng Shi, 2025. "The effect of the one-child policy on fertility in China: identification based on difference-in-differences," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2008. "The quantity-Quality trade-Off of children In a developing country: Identification using chinese twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 223-243, February.
    3. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.
    4. Vladimir Ponczek & Andre Portela Souza, 2012. "New Evidence of the Causal Effect of Family Size on Child Quality in a Developing Country," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(1), pages 64-106.
    5. Andrea Kutinova, 2009. "Paternity Deferments And The Timing Of Births: U.S. Natality During The Vietnam War," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 351-365, April.
    6. Kim Jungho & Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz & Arnstein Aassve, 2005. "Does Fertility Decrease the Welfare of Households? An Analysis of Poverty Dynamics and Fertility in Indonesia," VID Working Papers 0505, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    8. Julie Moschion, 2009. "Offre de travail des mères en France : l’effet causal du passage de deux à trois enfants," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 422(1), pages 51-78.
    9. Duryea, Suzanne & Behrman, Jere R. & Székely, Miguel, 1999. "Decomposing Fertility Differences across World Regions and over Time: Is Improved Health More Important than Women's Schooling?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1898, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Damian Clarke, 2018. "Children And Their Parents: A Review Of Fertility And Causality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 518-540, April.
    11. Maruyama, Shiko & Heinesen, Eskil, 2020. "Another look at returns to birthweight," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Damian Clarke & Benjamín Matta, 2018. "Practical considerations for questionable IVs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(3), pages 663-691, September.
    13. Ito, Takahiro & Tanaka, Shinsuke, 2018. "Abolishing user fees, fertility choice, and educational attainment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 33-44.
    14. Ponzo Michela & Scoppa Vincenzo, 2024. "Human Capital Investments and Family Size in Italy: IV Estimates Using Twin Births as an Instrument," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 425-461, April.
    15. Kim, Jungho & Aassve, Arnstein, 2006. "Fertility and its Consequence on Family Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
    17. David S Loughran & Ashlesha Datar & M. Rebecca Kilburn, 2004. "The Interactive Effect of Birth Weight and Parental Investment on Child Test Scores," Working Papers WR-168, RAND Corporation.
    18. Mogstad, M. & Wiswall, M., 2012. "Instrumental variables estimation with partially missing instruments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 186-189.
    19. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    20. Junsen Zhang, 2017. "The Evolution of China's One-Child Policy and Its Effects on Family Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 141-160, Winter.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chk:cuhkdc:00019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask the person in charge to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.