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Paternity Deferments and the Timing of Births: U.S. Natality During the Vietnam War

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Abstract

During the conflict in Vietnam, married men with dependents could obtain a deferment from the draft. In 1965, following President Johnson's Executive Order 11241 and a subsequent Selective Service System announcement, the particulars of this policy changed substantially in a way which provided strong incentives for childless American couples to conceive a first-born child. This study examines the effects of the intervention on the decision to start a family. In my empirical analysis, I extract data from the Vital Statistics for the period 1963-1968 and employ a difference-in-differences methodology. The estimated magnitude of the effect is substantial.

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  • Andrea Kutinova, 2006. "Paternity Deferments and the Timing of Births: U.S. Natality During the Vietnam War," Working Papers in Economics 06/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:06/10
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    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/0610.pdf
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    1. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records: Errata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1284-1286, December.
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    8. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    9. David Shapiro & Frank L. Mott, 1994. "Long-Term Employment and Earnings of Women in Relation to Employment Behavior Surrounding the First Birth," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(2), pages 248-275.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Make babies, not war
      by rené böheim in Econ Tidbits on 2012-09-10 19:08:00

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    1. Martha J. Bailey & Emily A. Beam & Anna Wentz, 2021. "Does younger age at marriage affect divorce? Evidence from Johnson's Executive Order 11241," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1328-1345, July.
    2. John Kennes & John Knowles, 2024. "Unmarried Births: Accounting and Equilibrium Analysis"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 84-109, April.
    3. Buckles, Kasey & Hagemann, Andreas & Malamud, Ofer & Morrill, Melinda & Wozniak, Abigail, 2016. "The effect of college education on mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 99-114.
    4. Brennan Mange & David C. Phillips, 2016. "Career Interruption and Productivity: Evidence from Major League Baseball during the Vietnam War Era," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(2), pages 159-185.
    5. John Cawley & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2012. "Unfit For Service: The Implications Of Rising Obesity For Us Military Recruitment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(11), pages 1348-1366, November.
    6. John Cawley & Damien de Walque & Daniel Grossman, 2017. "The Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam Draft," NBER Working Papers 23334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Timothy Page, 2011. "Labor supply responses to government subsidized health insurance: evidence from kidney transplant patients," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 133-144, June.
    8. Marianne P. Bitler & Lucie Schmidt, 2012. "Birth Rates and the Vietnam Draft," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 566-569, May.

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    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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