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Offre de travail des mères en France : l’effet causal du passage de deux à trois enfants

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  • Julie Moschion

Abstract

[ger] Zwischen 1962 und 2005 nahm die Erwerbsquote der Frauen in Frankreich (von 45,8 % auf 63,8 %) zu, steht aber weiterhin in negativem Verhältnis zur Anzahl der Kinder. Inwiefern schränkt die Geburt eines zusätzlichen Kinds die Teilnahme der Mütter am Arbeitsmarkt ein? Die Relation zwischen Kinderzahl und Erwerbstätigkeit ist komplex, da die Entscheidungen zugunsten einer Geburt und einer Erwerbstätigkeit gemeinsame Determinanten haben und sich gegenseitig beeinflussen. Somit ist es schwierig, a priori zu sagen, ob die Entscheidung, zu arbeiten oder nicht zu arbeiten, der Grund oder die Folge einer bestimmten Anzahl von Kindern ist. Um das Vorhandensein eines negativen kausalen Zusammenhangs zwischen Kinderzahl und Arbeitsangebot der Mütter zu testen, greifen wir auf instrumentale Variablen zurück, d. h. Variablen, die sich auf die Erwerbstätigkeit der Frauen nur indirekt, d. h. durch ihren Einfluss auf die Kinderzahl auswirken. Das Geschlecht der beiden älteren Kinder und die Tatsache, dass eine Frau bei der Erstgeburt Zwillinge bekommt, sind zwei aleatorische Quellen für die exogene Schwankung der Fruchtbarkeit. Zwei ältere Kinder gleichen Geschlechts oder Zwillinge bei der zweiten Geburt erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mehr als zwei Kinder zu haben; in diesem Fall schränken die Mütter ihre Erwerbstätigkeit ein. Anhand dieser beiden Variablen lässt sich der kausale Einfluss des Vorhandenseins von mehr als zwei Kindern auf die Erwerbstätigkeit der Mütter schätzen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei mehr als zwei Kindern die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Erwerbstätigkeit der Mütter um ca. 20 Prozentpunkte und im Fall einer Erwerbstätigkeit die Anzahl der gearbeiteten Wochenstunden um zwei Stunden abnimmt. Die negative Auswirkung auf die Erwerbstätigkeit der Mütter könnte umso größer sein, je geringer die Beschäftigungs-und Entlohnungsperspektiven der Mütter am Arbeitsmarkt sind oder je mehr sie ihre Kinder betreuen lassen müssen. Dieser Effekt ist bei den gering qualifizierten Müttern besonders ausgeprägt; er dauert an, wenn die Kinder größer werden, und schwankt nicht entsprechend der Größe des Wohnorts. [eng] Between 1962 and 2005, the rate of female participation in the French labour force rose from 45.8% to 63.8%, but remained negatively correlated with the number of children. To what extent does an additional child reduce mothers’ participation rate? The relationship between number of children and participation is complex, for fertility and work decisions have common determinants and influence each other. It is therefore hard to say a priori if the choice of working or not is a cause or consequence of the fact of having a certain number of children. To test the existence of a negative causal relationship between number of children and mothers’ labour supply, we use instrumental variables, i. e., variables that have only an indirect effect on women’s labour-force participation, via their influence on the number of children. More specifically, the gender distribution of the two eldest children and having twins at second birth are two random sources of exogenous variation in fertility. And having the two eldest children of the same gender or twins at second birth increases the probability of having more than two children— in which case, mothers’ participation rate is reduced. The two variables allow us to estimate the causal influence of having more than two children on mothers’ participation rate. The results show that having more than two children reduces the probability of mothers’ participation by about 20 points and, when they are in employment, it reduces weekly working time by two hours. The negative impact on mothers’ participation may be proportional to the weakness of the mothers’ job and earnings prospects in the labour market and to their need to arrange for child care. This effect is particularly significant for mothers with low educational attainment, but persists when the children grow up and does not vary by size of locality of residence. [fre] Entre 1962 et 2005, le taux d’activité des femmes a augmenté en France (de 45,8 % à 63,8 %) mais reste corrélé négativement au nombre d’enfants. Dans quelle mesure l’arrivée d’un enfant supplémentaire réduit-elle la participation des mères au marché du travail? La relation entre nombre d’enfants et activité est complexe car les décisions de fécondité et d’activité ont des déterminants communs, et s’influencent mutuellement. Il est donc difficile de dire a priori si le choix de travailler ou non est une cause ou une conséquence du fait d’avoir un certain nombre d’enfants. Pour tester l’existence d’une relation causale négative entre nombre d’enfants et offre de travail des mères, nous utilisons des variables instrumentales, c’est-à-dire des variables qui n’affectent qu’indirectement l’activité des femmes, par l’intermédiaire de leur influence sur le nombre d’enfants. Plus précisément, la répartition par sexe des deux aînés et le fait d’avoir des jumeaux à la deuxième naissance, constituent deux sources aléatoires de variation exogène de la fécondité. Et avoir deux aînés du même sexe ou des jumeaux à la deuxième naissance accroît la probabilité d’avoir plus de deux enfants, et dans ce cas, l’activité des mères est réduite. Ces deux variables permettent d’estimer l’influence causale du fait d’avoir plus de deux enfants sur l’activité des mères. Les résultats indiquent qu’avoir plus de deux enfants diminue la probabilité d’activité des mères d’environ 20 points et, lorsqu’elles sont en emploi, le nombre d’heures travaillées par semaine de deux heures. L’impact négatif sur l’activité des mères pourrait être d’autant plus important que les perspectives d’emploi et de salaire des mères sur le marché du travail sont faibles ou qu’elles doivent faire garder leurs enfants. Cet effet est ainsi particulièrement marqué pour les mères peu diplômées, mais perdure lorsque les enfants grandissent et ne varie pas selon la taille de la ville de résidence. [spa] Entre 1962 y 2005, el índice de actividad de la mujer aumentó en Francia (del 45,8% al 63,8%), pero sigue estando correlacionado negativamente con el número de hijos. ¿ En qué medida la llegada de un hijo más reduce la participación de las madres en el mercado laboral? La relación entre el número de hijos y actividad es compleja, porque las decisiones de fecundidad y de actividad tienen determinantes comunes y se influyen mutuamente. Por consiguiente, es difícil decir a priori si la decisión de trabajar o no es una causa o una consecuencia del hecho de haber tenido un determinado número de hijos. Para probar la existencia de una relación causal negativa entre el número de hijos y la oferta de trabajo de las madres, se utilizan variables instrumentales, es decir variables que solo afectan indirectamente a la actividad de las mujeres, mediante su influencia sobre el número de hijos. Más concretamente, la distribución por sexo de los dos hijos mayores y el hecho de tener mellizos en el segundo nacimiento, constituyen dos fuentes aleatorias de variación exógena de la fecundidad. Y tener a dos hijos mayores del mismo sexo o mellizos en el segundo nacimiento incrementa la probabilidad de tener más de dos hijos, y en ese caso se reduce la actividad de las madres. Estas dos variables permiten estimar la influencia causal del hecho de tener más de dos hijos sobre la actividad de las madres. Los resultados indican que tener más de dos hijos disminuye la probabilidad de actividad de las madres en aproximadamente 20 puntos y, cuando tienen un empleo, el número de horas trabajadas por semana en dos horas. El impacto negativo sobre la actividad de las madres podría ser todavía más importante, si se tiene en cuenta que las perspectivas de empleo y salario de las madres en el mercado laboral son débiles o que tienen que buscar a alguien que se ocupe de sus hijos. Dicho efecto se ve particularmente marcado para las madres con pocos estudios, pero perdura cuando los niños crecen y no varía según el tamaño de la ciudad de residencia.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Moschion, 2009. "Offre de travail des mères en France : l’effet causal du passage de deux à trois enfants," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 422(1), pages 51-78.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2009_num_422_1_8018
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2009.8018
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2009.8018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hupkau, Claudia & Leturcq, Marion, 2017. "Fertility and mothers’ labor supply: new evidence usingtime-to-conception," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69045, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Julie Moschion, 2013. "The Impact of Fertility on Mothers' Labour Supply in Australia: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(286), pages 319-338, September.
    3. Fabienne Berton, 2015. "Deux mois après une naissance : quelle conciliation travail-famille en France dans les années 2010 ?," Post-Print halshs-01301186, HAL.
    4. KUEPIE Mathias & DZOSSA Anaclet Désiré & KELODJOUE Samuel, 2013. "Determinants of labor market gender inequalities in Cameroon, Senegal and Mali: the role of human capital and the fertility burden," LISER Working Paper Series 2013-08, LISER.

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