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Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China

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  • Bairoliya, Neha
  • Miller, Ray

Abstract

We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:127:y:2021:i:c:s016518892100052x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Health; Aging; Fertility; Human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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