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Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Lee

    (Department of Demography, Department of Economics)

  • A. Mason

    (Department of Economics - UHM - University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa], East-West Center)

  • E. Amporfu
  • C.-B. An
  • L. R. Bixby
  • J. Bravo

    (Faculty of Medicine - UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago])

  • M. Bucheli
  • Q. Chen

    (Institute for Electronic Design Automation - Institute for Electronic Design Automation, Institute for Nanoelectronics - Institute for Nanoelectronics)

  • P. Comelatto
  • D. Coy
  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • G. Donehower
  • L. Dramani
  • A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz
  • R. I. Gal
  • M. Holz
  • N. T. L. Huong

    (Department of Paediatric Nephrology - Paediatric National Hospital, Hanoï Medical University)

  • F. Kluge

    (ICS - Institute of Computer Science - University of Augsburg - Universität Augsburg [Augsburg])

  • L. Ladusingh
  • S.-H. Lee
  • T. Lindh

    (Institute for Futures Studies - Institute for Futures Studies)

  • L. Ling
  • G. T. Long

    (Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, Missouri - University of Missouri [St. Louis] - University of Missouri System)

  • R. Matsukura
  • D. Mccarthy

    (Monash University [Malaysia])

  • I. Mejia-Guevara
  • T. Mergo
  • T. Miller
  • G. Mwabu
  • M. R. Narayana
  • V. Nor
  • G. M. Norte
  • N. Ogawa

    (IFREE - Institute for Research on Earth Evolution [Yokosuka] - JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

  • O. A. Olaniyan
  • J. Olivera
  • M. Oosthuizen
  • M. Phananiramai
  • B. L. Queiroz
  • R. H. Racelis
  • E. Renteria
  • J. M. Rice

    (WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis)

  • J. Sambt
  • A. Seckin
  • J. Sefton
  • A. Soyibo
  • J. A. Tovar
  • A.-C. Tung
  • C. M. Turra
  • B. P. Urdinola
  • R. Vaittinen
  • R. Vanne
  • M. Zannella
  • Q. Zhang

Abstract

Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Lee & A. Mason & E. Amporfu & C.-B. An & L. R. Bixby & J. Bravo & M. Bucheli & Q. Chen & P. Comelatto & D. Coy & Hippolyte d'Albis & G. Donehower & L. Dramani & A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz & R. I. G, 2014. "Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption," Post-Print hal-01075298, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01075298
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542
    as

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