IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/2151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A harmincévesnél fiatalabb anyák szja-kedvezményének várható demográfiai és makrogazdasági hatásai
[The expected demographic and macroeconomic effects of the personal income tax relief for mothers under the age of 30]

Author

Listed:
  • Szabó-Bakos, Eszter
  • Kuncz, Izabella
  • Németh, Petra

Abstract

A kormány 2023. január 1-től bevezette a 30 év alatti anyák személyijövedelemadó-kedvezményét, amelynek elsődleges célja a szülési életkor emelkedésének lassítása, megállítása és a születésszám emelése lehetett, hiszen Magyarországon a tényleges népességfogyás üteme 2022-re az Európai Unió tagországain belül a legmagasabbra szökött. A fő kérdésfeltevésünk, hogy kell-e, lehet-e családpolitikai eszközökkel ösztönözni a gyermekvállalást, növelni a születésszámot és csökkenteni az átlagos anyai életkort. Cikkünkben ezen új családpolitikai intézkedés demográfiai és makrogazdasági hatásait számszerűsítettük általános egyensúlyi modellkeretben. A numerikus eredményeink azonban a gazdaságpolitikai beavatkozás várható két célja közül csak egyet igazoltak: kismértékben növekedett a gyermekek átlagos száma, azt viszont nem tudtuk számításainkkal alátámasztani, hogy az intézkedés a szülő nők átlagéletkorának csökkenését eredményezné. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C60, D15, H30, J13.

Suggested Citation

  • Szabó-Bakos, Eszter & Kuncz, Izabella & Németh, Petra, 2023. "A harmincévesnél fiatalabb anyák szja-kedvezményének várható demográfiai és makrogazdasági hatásai [The expected demographic and macroeconomic effects of the personal income tax relief for mothers ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1213-1229.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2151
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2023.11.1213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=2151
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2023.11.1213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    2. Kathrin Morosow & Martin Kolk, 2020. "How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 197-233, April.
    3. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    4. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Alexia Prskawetz & Jože Sambt, 2014. "Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(34), pages 963-1010.
    6. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
    7. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    8. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2021. "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 913-964, December.
    9. John Bongaarts & Tomáš Sobotka, 2012. "A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 83-120, March.
    10. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    11. Amalia Miller, 2011. "The effects of motherhood timing on career path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1071-1100, July.
    12. Dimiter Philipov & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2001. "Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-60, March.
    13. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    3. Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet & J. Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal & Ignacio Danvila del Valle, 2017. "The International Multidimensional Fertility Index: The European Case," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 1331-1358, July.
    4. María Davia & Nuria Legazpe, 2015. "Educational attainment and maternity in Spain: not only “when” but also “how”," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 871-900, December.
    5. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    6. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    7. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    8. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, Labour, and the Demographic Consequences of Birth Postponement in Europe," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01452823, HAL.
    9. Tomáš Evan & Pavla Vozárová, 2018. "Influence of women’s workforce participation and pensions on total fertility rate: a theoretical and econometric study," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 51-72, April.
    10. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2016. ""Keeping up with the Joneses" and fertility choice," Monash Economics Working Papers 30-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    12. Soo-Yeon Yoon, 2017. "The influence of a supportive environment for families on women’s fertility intentions and behavior in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(7), pages 227-254.
    13. Sunnee Billingsley & Gerda Neyer & Katharina Wesolowski, 2022. "Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 951-974, December.
    14. Marcantonio Caltabiano, 2016. "A turning point in Italian fertility," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 379-397, December.
    15. Daniel Ciganda & Nicolas Todd, 2019. "The limits to fertility recuperation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. García-Manglano, Javier & Nollenberger, Natalia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2014. "Gender, Time-Use, and Fertility Recovery in Industrialized Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Massimiliano Bratti & Laura Cavalli, 2014. "Delayed First Birth and New Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Biological Fertility Shocks," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 35-63, February.
    18. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1346-1434, December.
    19. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    20. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.