Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union
The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure and level of development across the three economies that may explain the countries' varied intermediate-term growth prospects. Finally, the authors provide an analysis of "green" gross domestic product and the role of natural resources in China's growth.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gordon, Robert J, 2004.
"Five Puzzles in the Behaviour of Productivity, Investment and Innovation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2004. "Five Puzzles in the Behavior of Productivity, Investment, and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 10660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory Chow, 2008. "Another look at the rate of increase in TFP in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 219-224.
- Kim Jong-Il & Lau Lawrence J., 1994. "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-271, September.
- Prescott, Edward C, 1998.
"Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-51, August.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2005.
"The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5412, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2004.
"Extensive and Intensive Growth in a Neoclassical Framework,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2005. "Extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1427-1448, August.
- Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
- Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
- Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009.
"Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
- Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2006. "Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 236, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
- Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
- Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels & Kevin Stiroh, 2007. "Industry Origins of the American Productivity Resurgence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 229-252.
- Sterman, John D., 1985. "A behavioral model of the economic long wave," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 17-53, March.
- Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002.
"Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2002/09, European University Institute.
- Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
- Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006.
"The Return to Capital in China,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Hi-tech Innovation and Productivity Growth: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," NBER Working Papers 9437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chow, Gregory C & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 247-56, October.
- Charles I. Jones, .
"Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?,"
99001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Jinghai Zheng, 2008. "On Chinese productivity studies," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 109-119.
- Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
- Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
- Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 333-56, May.
- Dean Baker, 2002. "Is the New Economy Wearing Out?," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 117-121, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:jul:p:317-342:n:v.91no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.