Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union
The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure and level of development across the three economies that may explain the countries' varied intermediate-term growth prospects. Finally, the authors provide an analysis of "green" gross domestic product and the role of natural resources in China's growth.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007.
"Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach,"
Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
- Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2004.
"Five Puzzles in the Behavior of Productivity, Investment, and Innovation,"
NBER Working Papers
10660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2004. "Five Puzzles in the Behaviour of Productivity, Investment and Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006.
"The Return to Capital in China,"
NBER Working Papers
12755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chow, Gregory C & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 247-56, October.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2004.
"Extensive and Intensive Growth in a Neoclassical Framework,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2005. "Extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1427-1448, August.
- Gregory Chow, 2008. "Another look at the rate of increase in TFP in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 219-224.
- Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
- Charles I. Jones, 1999.
"Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
- Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
- Sterman, John D., 1985. "A behavioral model of the economic long wave," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 17-53, March.
- Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
- Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009.
"Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
- Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2006. "Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 236, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Dean Baker, 2002. "Is the New Economy Wearing Out?," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 117-121, January.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Hi-tech Innovation and Productivity Growth: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," NBER Working Papers 9437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2005.
"The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection,"
NBER Working Papers
11778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward C. Prescott, 1997.
"Needed: a theory of total factor productivity,"
242, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 333-56, May.
- Jinghai Zheng, 2008. "On Chinese productivity studies," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 109-119.
- Kim Jong-Il & Lau Lawrence J., 1994. "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-271, September.
- Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
- Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels & Kevin Stiroh, 2007. "Industry Origins of the American Productivity Resurgence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 229-252.
- Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
- Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:jul:p:317-342:n:v.91no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.