IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v32y2013icp524-531.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail, Aisha
  • Rashid, Kashif

Abstract

The purpose of this study is two-fold: firstly, to analyze the long run relationship between household saving and various socio-economic and demographic variables and secondly, to determine the short run and the long run impact of various socio-economic and demographic variables on the household saving rate in Pakistan. The relationship between household saving and various socio-economic and demographic variables is analyzed by applying Johansen cointegration analysis. Furthermore, Error Correction Model is also estimated in order to find out the convergence of the model towards equilibrium. The results show that there exists a long run relationship between household saving and the variables used in the study, while the result of Error Correction Model reveals that about 45% convergence towards equilibrium takes place every year.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:524-531
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313000540
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    2. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    3. Gupta, Kanhaya L, 1987. "Aggregate Savings, Financial Intermediation, and Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 303-311, May.
    4. M. Wakabayashi & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Demographic Trends and Household Saving in China," Working Papers ir99057, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    6. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "A Multivariate Analysis of Savings, Investment, and Growth in India," Economics Working Papers wp05-24, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    7. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    8. Rolf Aaberge & Yu Zhu, 2001. "The Pattern of Household Savings During a Hyperinflation: The Case of Urban China in the Late 1980s," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(2), pages 181-202, June.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July.
    11. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.
    12. Dipendra Sinha & Tapen Sinha, 2008. "Relationships among household saving, public saving, corporate saving and economic growth in India," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 181-186.
    13. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    14. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    15. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "International Differences in Social Security and Saving," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 225-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Pang-Long Tsai, 2003. "Determinants of Household Saving in Taiwan: Growth, Demography and Public Policy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 65-88.
    17. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Zeshan Atiq & Shaista Alam & Muhammad S. Butt, 2006. "The impact of demography, growth and public policy on household saving: a case study of Pakistan," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 13(2), pages 57-71, December.
    18. Ashfaque H. Khan & Lubna Hasan & Afia Malik, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 843-856.
    19. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    20. Mehboob Ahmad & Tasneem Asghar, 2004. "Estimation of Saving Behaviour in Pakistan Using Micro Data," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 73-92, Jul-Dec.
    21. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
    22. Norman Loayza & Rashmi Shankar, 2000. "Private Saving in India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 571-594, September.
    23. Newman, Carol & Tarp, Finn & Van den Broeck, Katleen & Quang, Chu Tien & Khai, Luu Duc, 2008. "Household Savings in Vietnam: Insights from a 2006 Rural Household Survey," MPRA Paper 62453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
    25. Jeannine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 692-711, December.
    26. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1996. "Saving and Investment: Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 87-117, February.
    27. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
    28. Koskela, Erkki & Viren, Matti, 1985. "Anticipated versus 'surprise' inflation in household consumption behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 77-81.
    29. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    30. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?," Research Department Publications 4221, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    31. Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
    32. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    33. Aniceto C. Orbeta Jr., 2006. "Children and Household Savings in the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22672, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    34. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    35. Aloysius Gunadi Brata, 2004. "Household Saving Behavior: The case of rural industry in Bantul," Finance 0410006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Franco Modigliani & Arlie Sterling, 1983. "Determinants of Private Saving with Special Reference to the Role of Social Security—Cross-country Tests," International Economic Association Series, in: Franco Modigliani & Richard Hemming (ed.), The Determinants of National Saving and Wealth, chapter 2, pages 24-55, Palgrave Macmillan.
    37. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 393-414, September.
    38. George Hondroyiannis, 2004. "Estimating private savings behaviour in Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(5), pages 457-476, October.
    39. Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui, 1993. "Household Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1281-1292.
    40. Lamberte, Mario B. & Bautista, Romeo M., 1990. "Comparative Saving Behavior of Rural and Urban Households in the Philippines," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1990 Vol. XVII No. 2-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    41. Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Mr. Christian Thimann, 1997. "Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared: Searching for Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1997/110, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2009. "Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 158, Asian Development Bank.
    43. Barry Bosworth & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2007. "Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2007.
    44. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    45. Aqdas Ali Kazmi, 1993. "National Savings Rates of India and Pakistan: A Macroeconometric Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1313-1324.
    46. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    47. Gulnur MURADOGLU & Fatma TASKIN, 1996. "Differences In Household Savings Behavior: Evidence From Industrial And Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 34(2), pages 138-153, June.
    48. Shahbaz Nasir & Mahmood Khalid, 2004. "Saving-investment Behaviour in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 665-682.
    49. Zafar Iqbal, 1993. "Institutional Variations in Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1311.
    50. Ashfaque H. Khan, 1988. "Financial Repression, Financial Development and Structure of Savings in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 701-713.
    51. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    52. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5550 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Mr. Tim Callen & Mr. Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence From OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/181, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2009. "East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 117-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    56. Zia M. Qureshi, 1981. "Household Saving in Pakistan: Some Findings from Time-Series Data," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 20(4), pages 375-397.
    57. Werner Dirschmid & Ernst Glatzer, 2004. "Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 25-38.
    58. Nadeem A. Burney & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1992. "Socio-economic Characteristics and Household Savings: An Analysis of the Households' Saving Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 31-48.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "On the validity of the Keynesian Absolute Income hypothesis in Pakistan: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 290-296.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwer & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Does The Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 47923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2016. "The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited," ISER Discussion Paper 0975, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2017. "The impact of sex ratios before marriage on household saving in two Asian countries: The competitive saving motive revisited," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 739-757, September.
    3. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "On the validity of the Keynesian Absolute Income hypothesis in Pakistan: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 290-296.
    5. Juann H. Hung & Rong Qian, 2010. "Why Is China's Saving Rate So High? A Comparative Study of Cross-Country Panel Data: Working Paper 2010-07," Working Papers 21920, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwer & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Does The Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 47923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Mehboob Ahmad & Tasneem Asghar, 2004. "Estimation of Saving Behaviour in Pakistan Using Micro Data," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 73-92, Jul-Dec.
    11. Ndanshau, Michael O. A. & Kilindo, Ali A. L., 2012. "Interest Rates and Financial Savings in Tanzania: 1967 - 2010," MPRA Paper 44387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2013.
    12. Naeem AKRAM & Muhammad Irfan AKRAM, 2015. "Savings Behaviour In Muslim And Non-Muslim Countries In Context To The Interest Rate," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 161-177.
    13. Andrés Solimano & Mario Gutierrez, 2008. "Savings, Investment and Capital Accumulation," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Muhammad Farhan & Muhammad Akram, 2011. "Does Income Level affect Saving Behaviour in Pakistan? An ARDL approach to co-integration for empirical assessment," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 3(5), pages 62-72, June.
    15. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    16. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Chang, Xiao & An, Tongliang & Tam, Pui Sun & Gu, Xinhua, 2020. "National savings rate and sectoral income distribution: An empirical look at China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    20. Marwan Abdul-Malik Thanoon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Abd. Aziz Abd. Rahman, 2006. "Malaysia: from economic recovery to sustained economic growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 295-315, January.
    21. FERROUHI, El Mehdi & LEHADIRI, Abderrassoul, 2014. "Savings Determinants of Moroccan banks: A cointegration modeling approach," MPRA Paper 76371, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household saving; Cointegration; Error Correction Model; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:524-531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.