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How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China

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  • Fan, Ying
  • Yavas, Abdullah

Abstract

The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this paper, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing a comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of their income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less of their income on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan-to-value ratio has a significant impact on the consumption behavior of households. The current paper offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households. Our results will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.

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  • Fan, Ying & Yavas, Abdullah, 2017. "How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 79306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79306
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    Cited by:

    1. Zan Yang & Ying Fan & Liqing Zhao, 2018. "A Reexamination of Housing Price and Household Consumption in China: The Dual Role of Housing Consumption and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 472-499, April.
    2. Fan, Ying & Wang, Yidi & Yang, Zan, 2024. "Offspring’s Uncertainty and Dynastic Decisions: Evidence from Urban China," Working Paper Series 24/4, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    3. Conor O'Toole & Kieran McQuinn & Philip Economides, 2021. "Household savings constraints, uncertainty and macroprudential policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 238-260, May.
    4. Fan, Ying & Sing, Tien Foo, 2021. "Macroeconomic policy-induced wealth effects on Chinese foreign housing investments," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Chunil Kim & Hyobi Choi & Yeol Choi, 2021. "Retirement Age and Housing Consumption: The Case of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Fan, Ying, 2022. "Demand shocks and price stickiness in housing market dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Bing Zhu & Lingxiao Li & David H. Downs & Steffen Sebastian, 2019. "New Evidence on Housing Wealth and Consumption Channels," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 51-79, January.
    8. Fan, Ying & Wu, Jing & Yang, Zan, 2017. "Informal borrowing and home purchase: Evidence from urban China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 108-118.
    9. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Missed Payments, Renegotiations, and Household Consumption," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 20(1), pages 31-50.
    10. Svetlana Todorova & Dimitria Karadimova, 2020. "How Mortgage Interest Rates and Salaries Affect the Mortgage Debt," Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, Union of Scientists - Varna, Economic Sciences Section, vol. 9(1), pages 63-70, April.
    11. Jie Chen & William Hardin & Mingzhi Hu, 2020. "Housing, Wealth, Income and Consumption: China and Homeownership Heterogeneity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 373-405, June.
    12. Funke, Michael & Li, Xiang & Zhong, Doudou, 2023. "Household indebtedness, financial frictions and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Yanyan Huang & Fuzhong Chen, 2022. "The Impact of Household Debt on Food Expenditure and Its Mechanism in Urban China," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 466-475, September.
    14. Agnieszka Strzelecka & Danuta Zawadzka, 2020. "Why Households Borrow Money? Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Households Debts: A Model Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 820-839.
    15. Ziyu Liu & Ke Zhao & Jinquan Liu & Yongfu Liu, 2023. "The Impact of Household Debt on the Health of the Elderly in China: Evidence from China Family Panel Studies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Mortgage Debt;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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