IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Not All Credit is Created Equal: Mortgage vs Non-mortgage Debt and Private Saving Rate in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Cengiz Tunc
  • Abdullah Yavas

Abstract

The private saving rate in Turkey has decreased substantially since 2000. In this study, we investigate the determinants of the private saving rate in Turkey, with a special focus on the role of mortgage debt. We find a strong and robust negative effect of mortgage credit growth on private saving rate. Nonmortgage consumer credit growth also has a negative and robust effect on private saving rate, though its effect is smaller than that of mortgage credit. Business credit growth, on the other hand, has a positive impact on private saving rate. Our results provide strong support for the argument that the high growth rate of consumer credit is a primary reason for the recent decrease in private saving rate in Turkey. We also find that private saving rate displays strong persistence, and public saving rate partially crowds out private saving rate. In addition, per capita real income growth rate and macroeconomic uncertainty have positive impact on private saving rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Cengiz Tunc & Abdullah Yavas, 2015. "Not All Credit is Created Equal: Mortgage vs Non-mortgage Debt and Private Saving Rate in Turkey," Working Papers 1524, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2015/15-24
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    2. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Miralles, Cesar, 2007. "Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 842, European Central Bank.
    3. Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Housing taxation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1461-1489, October.
    4. Florian Pelgrin & Alain de Serres, 2003. "The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants?," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(1), pages 117-153.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    6. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Sen, Kunal, 2004. "The Determinants of Private Saving in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 491-503, March.
    7. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    8. M. Fatih Ekinci & F. Pinar Erdem & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2015. "Credit growth, current account and financial depth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1809-1821, April.
    9. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    10. Paiva, Claudio & Jahan, Sarwat, 2003. "An empirical study of private saving in Brazil," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Brazil), vol. 23(1), January-M.
    11. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    12. James B. Ang, 2011. "Savings Mobilization, Financial Development And Liberalization: The Case Of Malaysia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(3), pages 449-470, September.
    13. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    14. Arda Aktas & Duygu Guner & Seyfettin Gursel & Gokce Uysal, 2010. "Structural Determinants of Household Savings in Turkey: 2003-2008," Working Papers 007, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Jun 2010.
    15. Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne & Webster, Elizabeth, 2002. "Determinants of Household Saving in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(241), pages 207-223, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sumru Altug & Melih Can Firat, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11.
    2. M. Fatih Ekinci & F. Pinar Erdem & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2015. "Credit growth, current account and financial depth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1809-1821, April.
    3. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    4. Fan, Ying & Yavas, Abdullah, 2017. "How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 79306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "Disentangling Age and Cohorts Effects on Home-Ownership and Housing Wealth in Turkey," Working Papers 1706, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving; Mortgage Debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha) or (Ilker Cakar). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.