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A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect

  • Ryan R. Brady

    ()

    (United States Naval Academy)

  • Derek Stimel

    ()

    (Menlo College)

  • Steven Sumner

    ()

    (University of San Diego)

In this paper, we test for the direct wealth effect in aggregate data on U.S. households over four distinct sub-periods from 1952 through 2011. We use recent time series techniques to distinguish between the direct wealth effect from indirect channels which may operate through personal disposable income or liabilities. We find evidence of a direct wealth effect for housing wealth, in particular, from 1998 to 2011. The responses of consumption in the 1998 to 2011 period are in contrast to an indirect or “common cause” explanation of the wealth effect. For financial wealth, there is some evidence of a direct wealth effect for the 1998 to 2011 period, but the effect overall is smaller than for tangible wealth. Also, before 1998 evidence for a direct wealth effect from either housing wealth or financial wealth is weak.

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File URL: http://www.usna.edu/EconDept/RePEc/usn/wp/usnawp40.pdf
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Paper provided by United States Naval Academy Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 40.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usn:usnawp:40
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  1. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 1-11, January.
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  12. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
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  14. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
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