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The Rise of the Housing-Wealth Effect: Counterfactual Impulse Response Analysis

Author

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  • Ryan R. Brady

    (Department of Economics, United States Naval Academy 589 McNair Road, Stop 10D, Annapolis, MD 21402-5030, U.S.A.)

  • Derek Stimel

    (Menlo College 1000 El Camino Real, Atherton, CA 94027-4301, U.S.A.)

  • Steven Sumner

    (School of Business Administration, University of San Diego Olin Hall 213, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110-2492, U.S.A.)

Abstract

This paper tests for the direct wealth effect versus an indirect wealth effect in aggregate data on U.S. households over four distinct sub-periods from 1952 through 2011. We use recent time series techniques to distinguish between the direct wealth effect from indirect channels which may operate through personal disposable income or liabilities. We find evidence of a direct wealth effect for housing wealth, in particular, from 1998 to 2011. The responses of consumption in the 1998 to 2011 period are in contrast to an indirect or ¡°common cause¡± explanation of the wealth effect. For financial wealth, there is some evidence of a direct wealth effect for the 1998 to 2011 period, but the effect overall is smaller than for tangible wealth. Also, before 1998 the evidence for a direct wealth effect from either housing wealth or financial wealth is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2014. "The Rise of the Housing-Wealth Effect: Counterfactual Impulse Response Analysis," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 4, pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:140401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wealth effect; Housing; Impulse response function; Consumption; Linear projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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