IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v87y2025icp2508-2519.html

Physical climate risk and household saving behavior: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jialong
  • Li, Jiao
  • Ouyang, Congrong

Abstract

Physical climate risks have increased in frequency and severity, significantly impacting household assets, health, and overall living costs. Using the China Household Finance Survey, this study investigates the influence of physical climate risks on household saving behavior among Chinese households. Our results suggest that physical climate risk exerts a positive influence on household saving rate, indicating a precautionary saving motive among households facing climate-related threats. The underlying mechanisms suggest that physical climate risk affects household saving rate via health risk and liquidity constraint. Although physical climate risks lead to higher precautionary savings, commercial insurance can mitigate the need for precautionary savings. Our findings also suggest a stronger positive causal relationship between physical climate risk and saving rate for less-educated, less risk-tolerant households, and residents of regions with adverse climate conditions and rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jialong & Li, Jiao & Ouyang, Congrong, 2025. "Physical climate risk and household saving behavior: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 2508-2519.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:2508-2519
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592625003455
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    2. James R. Brown & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ivan T. Ivanov, 2021. "Weathering Cash Flow Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1731-1772, August.
    3. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    4. Lugauer, Steven & Ni, Jinlan & Yin, Zhichao, 2019. "Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    6. Wang, Xin & Wen, Yi, 2012. "Housing prices and the high Chinese saving rate puzzle," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 265-283.
    7. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2019. "Correlated random effects models with unbalanced panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 137-150.
    8. Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2017. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 93-125, May.
    9. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2019. "Precautionary Saving: A Review Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 481-515, April.
    10. Li Gan & Zhichao Yin & Nan Jia & Shu Xu & Shuang Ma & Lu Zheng, 2014. "Data you need to know about China," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-38151-5, January.
    11. Yvonne Jie Chen & Zhiwu Chen & Shijun He, 2019. "Social Norms and Household Savings Rates in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 961-991.
    12. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    13. Jialong Li, 2024. "Household Debt and Risk Tolerance: Evidence From China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 70(3), pages 526-550, September.
    14. Derek Lemoine, 2021. "The Climate Risk Premium: How Uncertainty Affects the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 27-57.
    15. Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2019. "Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1069-1098, April.
    16. Lee, Jeong-Joon & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2010. "Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 77-86, January.
    17. Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp & Federico Ramella & Lavinia Rognone, 2024. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(17), pages 2076-2110, November.
    18. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    19. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    21. Sarah Brown & Jennifer Roberts & Karl Taylor, 2010. "Reservation wages, labour market participation and health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 501-529, July.
    22. Dessaint, Olivier & Matray, Adrien, 2017. "Do managers overreact to salient risks? Evidence from hurricane strikes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 97-121.
    23. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2013. "Household Debt And Attitudes Toward Risk," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(2), pages 283-304, June.
    24. Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125.
    25. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Kai Li & Chi‐Yang Tsou, 2023. "The Pollution Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1343-1392, June.
    26. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    27. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Krishna Rao & Johannes Stroebel & Andreas Weber & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate [Abrupt climate change]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3527-3571.
    28. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511-564.
    29. Bollinger, Christopher & Ding, Xiaozhou & Lugauer, Steven, 2022. "The expansion of higher education and household saving in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    30. Riju Joshi & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2019. "Correlated Random Effects Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables and Unbalanced Panels," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 134, pages 243-268.
    31. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    32. Du, Xuyang & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2024. "Urban–Rural heterogeneity in the effect of population ageing on the savings rate of urban and rural households in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 999-1010.
    33. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    34. Paul A. Griffin & David H. Lont & Estelle Y. Sun, 2017. "The Relevance to Investors of Greenhouse Gas Emission Disclosures," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 1265-1297, June.
    35. Hyun Kim & David Marcouiller, 2015. "Considering disaster vulnerability and resiliency: the case of hurricane effects on tourism-based economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(3), pages 945-971, May.
    36. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    37. Ziming Zhou & Zhiming Yu & Haitao Wu, 2022. "Climate Shocks, Household Resource Allocation, and Vulnerability to Poverty," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, July.
    38. Tan, Jing & Xu, Hao & Yu, Jingwen, 2022. "The effect of homeownership on migrant household savings: Evidence from the removal of home purchase restrictions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    39. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    40. Henry He Huang & Joseph Kerstein & Chong Wang, 2018. "The impact of climate risk on firm performance and financing choices: An international comparison," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(5), pages 633-656, July.
    41. Nora Pankratz & Rob Bauer & Jeroen Derwall, 2023. "Climate Change, Firm Performance, and Investor Surprises," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7352-7398, December.
    42. Feng, Jin & He, Lixin & Sato, Hiroshi, 2011. "Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 470-485.
    43. Manuela Deidda, 2014. "Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 329-360, February.
    44. Edith Ginglinger & Quentin Moreau, 2023. "Climate Risk and Capital Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7492-7516, December.
    45. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    46. Liu, Hong & Ma, Jinqiu & Zhao, Liqiu, 2023. "Public long-term care insurance and consumption of elderly households: Evidence from China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    47. Abhishek Kumar & Sushanta Mallick & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Effects of productivity growth on domestic savings across countries: Disentangling the roles of trend and cycle," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-155, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    48. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    49. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    50. Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
    51. Painter, Marcus, 2020. "An inconvenient cost: The effects of climate change on municipal bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 468-482.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yulong & Li, Yating & Zeng, Wenrui & Zhao, Yang, 2024. "Personal income tax reform and household savings rates: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    2. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner, 2022. "Does Public Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from Chinese Household Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9741, CESifo.
    3. Chang, Xiao & An, Tongliang & Tam, Pui Sun & Gu, Xinhua, 2020. "National savings rate and sectoral income distribution: An empirical look at China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Li, Jialong & Li, Jiao, 2025. "Does climate risk impact household consumption? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Song, Zhongchen & Coupé, Tom & Reed, W. Robert, 2021. "Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on Chinese household savings - Evidence from an Oaxaca decomposition," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Bussière, Matthieu & Kalantzis, Yannick & Lafarguette, Romain & Sicular, Terry, 2013. "Understanding household savings in China: the role of the housing market and borrowing constraints," MPRA Paper 44611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    9. Manger, Mark S. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2021. "Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    11. Basha, Shabeen Afsar & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2025. "Does political risk exacerbate climate risk? Firm-level evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    12. Tan, Jing & Xu, Hao & Yu, Jingwen, 2022. "The effect of homeownership on migrant household savings: Evidence from the removal of home purchase restrictions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Shaojie Zhou & Junsen Zhang, 2016. "Chinese Saving Rates from 1953 to 2012: Trends, Compositions and Prospects," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 227-252, May.
    14. Zheng, Chen & Sun, Zhiyue, 2025. "Organisation capital: A key asset for mitigating firm-level climate change exposure," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3).
    15. Zhang, Wenzhe & Kong, Dongmin, 2025. "Climate risks and corporate leverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    16. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    17. Horag Choi & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2017. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 635-661, June.
    18. Hui He & Feng Huang & Zheng Liu & Dongming Zhu, 2014. "Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform," Working Paper Series 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Cao, Zhangfan & Chen, Steven Xianglong & Dong, Ting & Lee, Edward, 2025. "Climate change uncertainty and supply chain financing," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(5).
    20. Zeng, Miao & Du, Jiang & Zhu, Xiaoyu & Deng, Xin, 2023. "Does internet use drive rural household savings? Evidence from 7825 farmer households in rural China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:2508-2519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.