Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes
The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. Different measures of the possible gains of model selection are considered: (i) the chances of finding the `correct' model, that is, a model which contains all necessary right-hand side variables and is as parsimonious as possible, (ii) the accuracy of the implied impulse-responses and (iii) the forecast performance of the models obtained with different specification algorithms. In the Monte Carlo experiments, the procedures recover the DGP specification from a large VAR with anticipated size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself when evaluated at the empirical size. We find that subset strategies and PcGets are close competitors in many respects, with the forecast comparison indicating a clear advantage of the PcGets algorithm.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Badia Fiesolana, Via dei Roccettini, 9, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/ECO/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001.
"Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Economics Series Working Papers 3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
- Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Leutkepohl, 2000.
"Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S. Monetary System,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0821, Econometric Society.
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,37, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2002/19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Banks)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.