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Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area

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  • Garcí­a, Juan Angel
  • Werner, Sebastian E. V.

Abstract

This paper investigates the power of macroeconomic factors to explain euro area bond risk premia using (i) a large dataset that captures the nowadays data-rich environment (ii) the Elastic Net variable selection. We find that macroeconomic factors, in particular economic activity and sentiment indicators, explain 40% of the variability of risk premia before the crisis, and up to 55% during the financial crisis, and both for core countries (from 40% to 60%) and periphery countries (from 35% to 44%). Moreover, macroeconomic factor models clearly outperform financial indicators like the CP-factor and credit default swap (CDS) premia, even in periods of significant market turbulence. JEL Classification: E43, E44, G01, G12, C52, C55

Suggested Citation

  • Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Sebastian E. V., 2016. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1938, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    2. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    3. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2015. "Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2859-2901.
    4. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & de Sola Perea, Maite, 2015. "A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 308-325.
    6. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond risk premium; financial crisis; macro factors; model selection; variable selection;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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