Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies
This paper analyzes the twin deficit hypothesis - simultaneous current account deficit and budget deficit - in three small open Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) running under certain forms of the fixed exchange rate regime. The idea of twin deficits is tested using the vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality tests and forecast variance decomposition, involving three variables: current account, budget balance, and investments. The new estimates confirm significant long-run positive relation between budget balance and current account in Estonia and Lithuania on one hand and the negative one in case of budget balance and investments in all three considered countries. The results of the analysis are specific to each country as they depend on their particular macroeconomic background. The contribution was elaborated within the project VEGA 1/0973/11.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-381, August.
- Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
- Gabrisch, Hubert, 2011. "On the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and the Import Propensity in Transition Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 20/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Michael Bergman, 2011. "Best in Class: Public Finances in Sweden during the Financial Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 431-453, December.
- Srđan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(4), pages 489-500, December.
- Srdjan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Post-Print halshs-00260148, HAL.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1071-1081.
- Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
- Vince Daly & Jalal Siddiki, 2009. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1155-1164.
- Daly, Vince & Siddiki, Jalal Uddin, 2007. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
- Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
- Chris Mulhearn & Howard R. Vane, 2008. "The Euro," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12566, July.
- Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA.
- Ant??nio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp944, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed M. Khalid, 2005. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition," International Finance 0504001, EconWPA.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2009. "Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1667-1675, April.
- Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
- Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2009. "Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1027-1034.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2581, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "A structural VAR analysis of electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2765-2769, July.
- Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "External and budget deficits in some developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 77-98. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:61:y:2014:i:2:p:227-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivana Horvat)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.