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Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour

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  • Holmes, Mark J.

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the current account and budget balances by means of a threshold cointegration approach advocated by Hansen and Seo (2002). Using US data covering 1947-2009, a long-run positive cointegrating relationship is confirmed. This supports the notion of a Keynesian twin deficits relationship. The short-run dynamics are investigated through an estimated threshold vector error correction model. Depending on the regime present, it is either the external or internal balance that is responsible for error correction. This has important implications for the use of fiscal policy to control the external balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:65:y:2011:i:3:p:271-277
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuku Chuku & Atan Johnson & Obioesio Felix & Onye Kenneth, 2017. "Working Paper 287 - Current Account Adjustments and Integration in West Africa," Working Paper Series 2407, African Development Bank.
    2. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
    3. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    4. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2018. "Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?," Working Papers REM 2018/31, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    6. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    7. Aviral Kumar TIWARI & Suresh K G & Mihai MUTAȘCU, 2015. "A Structural VAR analysis of Fiscal shocks on current accounts in Greece," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 5-20, Autumn.
    8. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    9. repec:eee:joecas:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:80-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Psarianos, Iacovos, 2014. "Fiscal imbalances and asymmetric adjustment under Labour and Conservative governments in the UK," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 208-213.
    11. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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