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Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application

  • Peter Sephton
  • Janelle Mann

In this article we examine the performance of an extended approach to testing for threshold cointegration that relies on the threshold specification process suggested by Gonzalo and Pitarakis (2002) and the block-bootstrap threshold unit root test of Seo (2008). A topical application demonstrates its merits.

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Article provided by Economics and Econometrics Society in its journal Journal of Economics and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 54-77

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Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:56:y:2013:i:2:p:54-77
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  1. Myunghwan Seo, 2005. "Unit Root Test in a Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory and Residual-based Block Bootstrap," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/484, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  2. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2005. "Testing For Threshold Nonlinearity in Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 344-371.
  3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  4. Bruno Larue & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Yannick Rancourt, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through, menu costs and threshold cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 171-192, February.
  5. Leonardo Bartolini & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Twin deficits, twenty years later," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Oct).
  6. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
  7. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2009. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," SDSU Working Papers in Progress 22009, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Vicente Esteve & Maria Prats, 2010. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 405-410.
  11. Cook, Steven, 2007. "A threshold cointegration test with increased power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 73(6), pages 386-392.
  12. Brenda L. Boetel & Ruben Hoffmann & Donald J. Liu, 2007. "Estimating Investment Rigidity within a Threshold Regression Framework: The Case of U.S. Hog Production Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 36-51.
  13. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2012. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure Using a Three‐regime Threshold Unit Root VECM: An Application to the Swiss ‘Isle’ of Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 180-202, 04.
  14. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2013. "Further evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 177-181.
  15. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  16. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
  17. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  18. Clements, Michael P. & Galv O, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 567-585, September.
  19. P. S. Sephton, 2011. "Who cut the cheese?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 7-10.
  20. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2002. "Bounds for inference with nuisance parameters present only under the alternative," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 494-519, 06.
  21. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
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