Are EU budget deficits stationary?
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/journal/181/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005.
"Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
- Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000.
"US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Martin, G.M., 1998. "U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1999.
"Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate,"
99-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
- Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988.
"Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987.
"Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006.
"Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2006/5, European University Institute.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 0591, European Central Bank.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Discussion Papers 11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008.
"Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, 04.
- António Afonso, 2005.
"Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
- Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
- Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A guide to the computation of stationarity tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 433-448, June.
- Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
- Giulietti, Monica & Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2006. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data in the presence of cross section dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 758, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000.
"Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Tom Doan, . "HADRI: RATS procedure to implement Hadri test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00084, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 1999. "An Inquiry into the Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy: Some Time-Series Tests," Public Finance Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 220-236, March.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003.
"Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sul, Donggyu & Phillips, Peter & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Working Papers 141, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm426, Yale School of Management.
- Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
- Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Tanner, Evan & Liu, Peter, 1994. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 511-18, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:767-778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.