IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbb/reswpp/200901-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Balassone

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Jorge Cunha

    (Banco de Portugal)

  • Geert Langenus

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Bernhard Manzke

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Jeanne Pavot

    (Banque de France)

  • Doris Prammer

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank
    European Commission)

  • Pietro Tommasino

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government's primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Balassone & Jorge Cunha & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Jeanne Pavot & Doris Prammer & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area," Working Paper Research 155, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200901-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp155en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; fiscal sustainability; generational accounting; medium-term objectives for fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200901-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.