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Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?


  • Ant??nio Afonso
  • Christophe Rault



We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.

Suggested Citation

  • Ant??nio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp902, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-902

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Post-Print halshs-00363702, HAL.
    2. Jacobo Campo-Robledo & Luis Melo-Velandia, 2015. "Sustainability of Latin American fiscal deficits: a panel data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 889-907, November.
    3. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," ifo Working Paper Series 141, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The elusive character of fiscal sustainability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2651-2664, June.
    5. Bogdan Dima & Oana Lobont & Cristina Nicolescu, 2009. "The Fiscal Revenues And Public Expenditures: Is Their Evolution Sustenable? The Romanian Case," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 1-42.
    6. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    7. Kurniawan, Rudi, 2012. "Sustainability of Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: The Experience of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 65883, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    fiscal sustainability; EU; panel cointegration.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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